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SMS Łódź U18 vs Stal Rzeszów U18 — Central Youth League 2020

SMS Łódź U18
SMS Łódź U18
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Stal Rzeszów U18
Stal Rzeszów U18
5/7/2022Central Youth LeagueCentral Youth League · Round 27

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

SMS Łódź U1866%
×Draw19%
Stal Rzeszów U1816%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

SMS Łódź U18
2.35
Stal Rzeszów U18
1.06

SMS Łódź U18 creates 122% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 15 away

creates per match

SMS Łódź U18
1.23
Stal Rzeszów U18
0.93

allows per match

SMS Łódź U18
1.20
Stal Rzeszów U18
3.47

finishing

SMS Łódź U18+0.00on par
Stal Rzeszów U18+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Over
  • Over66
  • Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

SMS Łódź U18 ↓

Stal Rzeszów U18 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–18%
1–24%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–18%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
66%34%3.5
44%56%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

SMS Łódź U18 or draw
84%
SMS Łódź U18 or Stal Rzeszów U18
81%
Draw or Stal Rzeszów U18
34%

Winning margin

SMS Łódź U18 wins by 2+
43%
Stal Rzeszów U18 wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

SMS Łódź U18 1+ goals
90%
SMS Łódź U18 2+ goals
68%
SMS Łódź U18 3+ goals
41%
Stal Rzeszów U18 1+ goals
65%
Stal Rzeszów U18 2+ goals
29%
Stal Rzeszów U18 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

SMS Łódź U18 (draw refunded)
81%
Stal Rzeszów U18 (draw refunded)
19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

SMS Łódź U18 at home — creates 1.23, concedes 1.20 · 30 matches

Stal Rzeszów U18 away — creates 0.93, concedes 3.47 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

SMS Łódź U18 attack 1.23 + Stal Rzeszów U18 defence 3.47 → ÷2 → 2.35

Stal Rzeszów U18 attack 0.93 + SMS Łódź U18 defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 66%?"

SMS Łódź U18 scores more
66%
level
19%
Stal Rzeszów U18 scores more
16%

SMS Łódź U18 at 66% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 66% does not mean "SMS Łódź U18 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Central Youth League: SMS Łódź U18 1–0 Stal Rzeszów U18

SMS Łódź U18 beat Stal Rzeszów U18 1-0 in Central Youth League on May 7, 2022.