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SMS Łódź U18 vs Polonia Warszawa U18 — Central Youth League 2020

SMS Łódź U18
SMS Łódź U18
FT
1 – 0
Polonia Warszawa U18
Polonia Warszawa U18
11/21/2021Central Youth LeagueCentral Youth League · Round 15

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

SMS Łódź U1836%
×Draw24%
Polonia Warszawa U1840%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

SMS Łódź U18
1.48
Polonia Warszawa U18
1.57

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 30 home / 22 away

creates per match

SMS Łódź U18
1.23
Polonia Warszawa U18
1.95

allows per match

SMS Łódź U18
1.20
Polonia Warszawa U18
1.73

finishing

SMS Łódź U18+0.00on par
Polonia Warszawa U18+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

SMS Łódź U18 ↓

Polonia Warszawa U18 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

SMS Łódź U18 or draw
60%
SMS Łódź U18 or Polonia Warszawa U18
76%
Draw or Polonia Warszawa U18
64%

Winning margin

SMS Łódź U18 wins by 2+
17%
Polonia Warszawa U18 wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

SMS Łódź U18 1+ goals
77%
SMS Łódź U18 2+ goals
43%
SMS Łódź U18 3+ goals
19%
Polonia Warszawa U18 1+ goals
79%
Polonia Warszawa U18 2+ goals
46%
Polonia Warszawa U18 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

SMS Łódź U18 (draw refunded)
47%
Polonia Warszawa U18 (draw refunded)
53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

SMS Łódź U18 at home — creates 1.23, concedes 1.20 · 30 matches

Polonia Warszawa U18 away — creates 1.95, concedes 1.73 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

SMS Łódź U18 attack 1.23 + Polonia Warszawa U18 defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 1.48

Polonia Warszawa U18 attack 1.95 + SMS Łódź U18 defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.57

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

SMS Łódź U18 scores more
36%
level
24%
Polonia Warszawa U18 scores more
40%

Polonia Warszawa U18 at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Polonia Warszawa U18 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Central Youth League: SMS Łódź U18 1–0 Polonia Warszawa U18

SMS Łódź U18 beat Polonia Warszawa U18 1-0 in Central Youth League on November 21, 2021.