SMS Łódź U18 1–1 Jagiellonia U18: Result & Stats

SMS Łódź U18

FT

1 – 1

Jagiellonia U18

11/4/2020

Central Youth League · Round 10

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

SMS Łódź U1838%

×Draw24%

Jagiellonia U1838%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SMS Łódź U18Expected goals in this matchJagiellonia U18

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.48

1.49

SMS Łódź U18

1.48

Jagiellonia U18

1.49

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 30 home / 37 away

1.23

creates per match

1.78

1.20

allows per match

1.73

creates per match

SMS Łódź U18

1.23

Jagiellonia U18

1.78

allows per match

SMS Łódź U18

1.20

Jagiellonia U18

1.73

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

SMS Łódź U18+0.00on par

Jagiellonia U18+0.00on par

Total goals

Over57
Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

SMS Łódź U18 ↓

Jagiellonia U18 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–18%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–28%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

57%43%3.5

34%66%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

SMS Łódź U18 or draw

62%

SMS Łódź U18 or Jagiellonia U18

76%

Draw or Jagiellonia U18

62%

Winning margin

SMS Łódź U18 wins by 2+

18%

Jagiellonia U18 wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

SMS Łódź U18 1+ goals

77%

SMS Łódź U18 2+ goals

43%

SMS Łódź U18 3+ goals

19%

Jagiellonia U18 1+ goals

77%

Jagiellonia U18 2+ goals

44%

Jagiellonia U18 3+ goals

19%

Draw no bet

SMS Łódź U18 (draw refunded)

50%

Jagiellonia U18 (draw refunded)

50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

48%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

SMS Łódź U18 at home — creates 1.23, concedes 1.20 · 30 matches

Jagiellonia U18 away — creates 1.78, concedes 1.73 · 37 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

SMS Łódź U18 attack 1.23 + Jagiellonia U18 defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 1.48

Jagiellonia U18 attack 1.78 + SMS Łódź U18 defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.49

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

SMS Łódź U18 scores more

38%

level

24%

Jagiellonia U18 scores more

38%

SMS Łódź U18 at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "SMS Łódź U18 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff