Smouha SC vs Petrojet — League Cup 2021
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 7+ matches
Smouha SC24%
Petrojet51%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Petrojet creates 60% more chances
Season form · 9 home / 7 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Under52
- Over48
Close call
Both teams score
- No50
- Yes50
Close call
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Smouha SC ↓
Most likely 0–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Smouha SC at home — creates 1.00, concedes 0.78 · 9 matches
Petrojet away — creates 2.43, concedes 1.00 · 7 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Smouha SC attack 1.00 + Petrojet defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.00
Petrojet attack 2.43 + Smouha SC defence 0.78 → ÷2 → 1.60
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 51%?"
Petrojet at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 51% does not mean "Petrojet will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Match Events
Probable lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff
Head to Head
4 previous meetings · small sample
AL MasryPetrojet
Wadi Degla
Enppi
El Geish
Masr
El Gouna FC
El Mokawloon
Pharco
Al Ittihad
Kahraba Ismailia
Ghazl El MehallaSmouha SC
National Bank of Egypt
Zamalek SC
Al Ahly
Ismaily SC
Future FC
Ceramica Cleopatra
Pyramids FC
Haras El HodoodIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Smouha SC host Petrojet on Tuesday, 18 March 2025 at 19:30. The match is part of the League Cup 2021/2022 season.
League Cup: Smouha SC 1–2 Petrojet
Petrojet beat Smouha SC 2-1 in League Cup on March 18, 2025.
Goals: Khaled Ramadan (30'), I. Bamba (45+2'), M. Mostafa (53').
The match was played at Borg El Arab Stadium in Alexandria.