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Smouha SC vs Future FC — League Cup 2021

Smouha SC
Smouha SC
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Future FC
Future FC
1/16/2024League CupLeague Cup · Group Stage - 2Alexandria Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Smouha SC24%
×Draw33%
Future FC43%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Smouha SC
0.68
Future FC
1.02

Future FC creates 50% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 11 away

creates per match

Smouha SC
1.00
Future FC
1.27

allows per match

Smouha SC
0.78
Future FC
0.36

finishing

Smouha SC+0.00on par
Future FC+0.00on par

Total goals

76%Under
  • Under76
  • Over24

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

68%No
  • No68
  • Yes32

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Smouha SC ↓

Future FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–018%
0–119%
0–210%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–04%
2–14%
2–22%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–20%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (19%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
82%18%1.5
51%49%2.5
24%76%3.5
9%91%4.5
3%97%

Double chance

Smouha SC or draw
57%
Smouha SC or Future FC
67%
Draw or Future FC
76%

Winning margin

Smouha SC wins by 2+
7%
Future FC wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Smouha SC 1+ goals
49%
Smouha SC 2+ goals
15%
Smouha SC 3+ goals
3%
Future FC 1+ goals
64%
Future FC 2+ goals
27%
Future FC 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Smouha SC (draw refunded)
36%
Future FC (draw refunded)
64%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
19%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Smouha SC at home — creates 1.00, concedes 0.78 · 9 matches

Future FC away — creates 1.27, concedes 0.36 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Smouha SC attack 1.00 + Future FC defence 0.36 → ÷2 → 0.68

Future FC attack 1.27 + Smouha SC defence 0.78 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Smouha SC scores more
24%
level
33%
Future FC scores more
43%

Future FC at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Future FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Smouha SC vs Future FC

Smouha SC and Future FC drew 0-0 in League Cup on January 16, 2024.

The match was played at Alexandria Stadium in Alexandria.