Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Future FC vs Smouha SC — League Cup 2021

Future FC
Future FC
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Smouha SC
Smouha SC
3/22/2025League CupLeague Cup · Group Stage - 3Petrosport Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Future FC38%
×Draw34%
Smouha SC28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Future FC
0.93
Smouha SC
0.74

Future FC creates 26% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 10 away

creates per match

Future FC
0.75
Smouha SC
0.40

allows per match

Future FC
1.08
Smouha SC
1.10

finishing

Future FC+0.00on par
Smouha SC+0.00on par

Total goals

77%Under
  • Under77
  • Over23

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

68%No
  • No68
  • Yes32

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Future FC ↓

Smouha SC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–019%
0–114%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–018%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–16%
2–22%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (19%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
81%19%1.5
50%50%2.5
23%77%3.5
9%91%4.5
3%97%

Double chance

Future FC or draw
72%
Future FC or Smouha SC
66%
Draw or Smouha SC
62%

Winning margin

Future FC wins by 2+
14%
Smouha SC wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Future FC 1+ goals
61%
Future FC 2+ goals
24%
Future FC 3+ goals
7%
Smouha SC 1+ goals
52%
Smouha SC 2+ goals
17%
Smouha SC 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Future FC (draw refunded)
58%
Smouha SC (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
19%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Future FC at home — creates 0.75, concedes 1.08 · 12 matches

Smouha SC away — creates 0.40, concedes 1.10 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Future FC attack 0.75 + Smouha SC defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 0.93

Smouha SC attack 0.40 + Future FC defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 0.74

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Future FC scores more
38%
level
34%
Smouha SC scores more
28%

Future FC at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Future FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

League Cup: Future FC 2–0 Smouha SC

Future FC beat Smouha SC 2-0 in League Cup on March 22, 2025.

The match was played at Petrosport Stadium in Cairo.