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Smouha SC vs AL Mokawloon — Premier League 2018

Smouha SC
Smouha SC
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
AL Mokawloon
AL Mokawloon
8/13/2020Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 19Alexandria Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Smouha SC37%
×Draw29%
AL Mokawloon34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Smouha SC
1.13
AL Mokawloon
1.06

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 128 home / 17 away

creates per match

Smouha SC
1.25
AL Mokawloon
1.00

allows per match

Smouha SC
1.11
AL Mokawloon
1.00

finishing

Smouha SC+0.00on par
AL Mokawloon+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Smouha SC ↓

AL Mokawloon →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–112%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Smouha SC or draw
66%
Smouha SC or AL Mokawloon
71%
Draw or AL Mokawloon
63%

Winning margin

Smouha SC wins by 2+
15%
AL Mokawloon wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Smouha SC 1+ goals
68%
Smouha SC 2+ goals
31%
Smouha SC 3+ goals
11%
AL Mokawloon 1+ goals
65%
AL Mokawloon 2+ goals
29%
AL Mokawloon 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Smouha SC (draw refunded)
52%
AL Mokawloon (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Smouha SC at home — creates 1.25, concedes 1.11 · 128 matches

AL Mokawloon away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.00 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Smouha SC attack 1.25 + AL Mokawloon defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.13

AL Mokawloon attack 1.00 + Smouha SC defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Smouha SC scores more
37%
level
29%
AL Mokawloon scores more
34%

Smouha SC at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Smouha SC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Smouha SC vs AL Mokawloon

Smouha SC and AL Mokawloon drew 1-1 in Premier League on August 13, 2020.

The match was played at Alexandria Stadium in Alexandria.