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Smouha SC vs Al Ahly — Premier League 2018

Smouha SC
Smouha SC
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Al Ahly
Al Ahly
8/8/2024Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 24Borg El Arab Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 128+ matches

Smouha SC26%
×Draw27%
Al Ahly48%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Smouha SC
0.98
Al Ahly
1.45

Al Ahly creates 48% more chances

Season form · 128 home / 128 away

creates per match

Smouha SC
1.25
Al Ahly
1.78

allows per match

Smouha SC
1.11
Al Ahly
0.71

finishing

Smouha SC+0.00on par
Al Ahly+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Smouha SC ↓

Al Ahly →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–113%
0–29%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–09%
1–113%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–16%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Smouha SC or draw
52%
Smouha SC or Al Ahly
73%
Draw or Al Ahly
74%

Winning margin

Smouha SC wins by 2+
9%
Al Ahly wins by 2+
24%

Team goals

Smouha SC 1+ goals
62%
Smouha SC 2+ goals
26%
Smouha SC 3+ goals
8%
Al Ahly 1+ goals
77%
Al Ahly 2+ goals
42%
Al Ahly 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Smouha SC (draw refunded)
35%
Al Ahly (draw refunded)
65%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Smouha SC at home — creates 1.25, concedes 1.11 · 128 matches

Al Ahly away — creates 1.78, concedes 0.71 · 128 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Smouha SC attack 1.25 + Al Ahly defence 0.71 → ÷2 → 0.98

Al Ahly attack 1.78 + Smouha SC defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.45

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Smouha SC scores more
26%
level
27%
Al Ahly scores more
48%

Al Ahly at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Al Ahly will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Smouha SC vs Al Ahly

Al Ahly beat Smouha SC 1-0 in Premier League on August 8, 2024.

The match was played at Borg El Arab Stadium in Alexandria.