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Smorgon vs FC Minsk — Coppa 2026

Smorgon
Smorgon
FT
3 – 4
HT: 1 – 2
FC Minsk
FC Minskadvanced
J. Nsangou 89'
M. Yablonskiy 61'
M. Dukso 18'
A. Migdalenok 90+3'
A. Makas 68'
A. Sokol 45'
M. Dieye 40'
7/18/2026CoppaCoppa · Round of 32Yunost Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Smorgon18%
×Draw18%
FC Minsk64%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Smorgon
1.31
FC Minsk
2.58

FC Minsk creates 97% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 12 away

creates per match

Smorgon
1.20
FC Minsk
1.75

allows per match

Smorgon
3.40
FC Minsk
1.42

finishing

Smorgon+0.00on par
FC Minsk+0.00on par

Total goals

74%Over
  • Over74
  • Under26

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

67%Yes
  • Yes67
  • No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Smorgon ↓

FC Minsk →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–15%
0–27%
0–36%
0–44%
1
1–03%
1–17%
1–29%
1–38%
1–45%
2
2–02%
2–15%
2–26%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
74%26%3.5
54%46%4.5
34%66%

Double chance

Smorgon or draw
36%
Smorgon or FC Minsk
82%
Draw or FC Minsk
82%

Winning margin

Smorgon wins by 2+
7%
FC Minsk wins by 2+
43%

Team goals

Smorgon 1+ goals
73%
Smorgon 2+ goals
38%
Smorgon 3+ goals
14%
FC Minsk 1+ goals
92%
FC Minsk 2+ goals
72%
FC Minsk 3+ goals
47%

Draw no bet

Smorgon (draw refunded)
22%
FC Minsk (draw refunded)
78%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
60%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Smorgon at home — creates 1.20, concedes 3.40 · 5 matches

FC Minsk away — creates 1.75, concedes 1.42 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Smorgon attack 1.20 + FC Minsk defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.31

FC Minsk attack 1.75 + Smorgon defence 3.40 → ÷2 → 2.58

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

Smorgon scores more
18%
level
18%
FC Minsk scores more
64%

FC Minsk at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "FC Minsk will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

18'
M. Dukso
40'
M. Dieye
45'
A. Sokol
46'
A. Makas← M. Dieye
52'
B. FartunaMissed penalty
55'
M. Yablonskiy← D. Zhabrakov
55'
A. Tishko← Y. Yarotskiy
55'
V. Kabachevskiy← A. Stankevich
61'
M. Yablonskiy
62'
K. Malitskiy← K. Kuchinskiy
62'
A. Migdalenok← V. Yatskevich
65'
J. Nsangou← B. Fartuna
68'
A. Makas
81'
V. Malyutin← E. Ernisov
83'
I. Sivkov← K. Elagin
89'
J. Nsangou
90+3'
A. Migdalenok

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Smorgon vs FC Minsk

FC Minsk beat Smorgon 4-3 in Coppa on July 18, 2026.

Goals: M. Dukso (18'), M. Dieye (40'), A. Sokol (45'), M. Yablonskiy (61'), A. Makas (68'), J. Nsangou (89'), A. Migdalenok (90+3').

The match was played at Yunost Stadium in Smorgon.