Smolevichi-Sti 0–0 Ruh Brest: Result & Stats

Smolevichi-Sti

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Ruh Brest

11/2/2019

1. Division · Round 27Stadyen Haradski (Smalyavichy (Smolevichi))

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Smolevichi-Sti36%

×Draw24%

Ruh Brest40%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Smolevichi-StiExpected goals in this matchRuh Brest

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.46

1.57

Smolevichi-Sti

1.46

Ruh Brest

1.57

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 14 home / 14 away

2.07

creates per match

2.43

0.71

allows per match

0.86

creates per match

Smolevichi-Sti

2.07

Ruh Brest

2.43

allows per match

Smolevichi-Sti

0.71

Ruh Brest

0.86

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Smolevichi-Sti+0.00on par

Ruh Brest+0.00on par

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Smolevichi-Sti ↓

Ruh Brest →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–18%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

58%42%3.5

36%64%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Smolevichi-Sti or draw

60%

Smolevichi-Sti or Ruh Brest

76%

Draw or Ruh Brest

64%

Winning margin

Smolevichi-Sti wins by 2+

17%

Ruh Brest wins by 2+

20%

Team goals

Smolevichi-Sti 1+ goals

77%

Smolevichi-Sti 2+ goals

43%

Smolevichi-Sti 3+ goals

18%

Ruh Brest 1+ goals

79%

Ruh Brest 2+ goals

46%

Ruh Brest 3+ goals

21%

Draw no bet

Smolevichi-Sti (draw refunded)

47%

Ruh Brest (draw refunded)

53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

50%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Smolevichi-Sti at home — creates 2.07, concedes 0.71 · 14 matches

Ruh Brest away — creates 2.43, concedes 0.86 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Smolevichi-Sti attack 2.07 + Ruh Brest defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 1.46

Ruh Brest attack 2.43 + Smolevichi-Sti defence 0.71 → ÷2 → 1.57

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Smolevichi-Sti scores more

36%

level

24%

Ruh Brest scores more

40%

Ruh Brest at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Ruh Brest will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff