Smolensk 1–1 Znamya Truda: Result & Stats

Smolensk

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Znamya Truda

B. Tsygankov 52'

D. Zhemaytis 90+3'

9/27/2020

Second League - Group 2 · Group 2 - 8Stadion SGAFKST

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Smolensk39%

×Draw28%

Znamya Truda33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SmolenskExpected goals in this matchZnamya Truda

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.24

1.13

Smolensk

1.24

Znamya Truda

1.13

Smolensk creates 10% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 68 away

0.88

creates per match

1.07

1.18

allows per match

1.59

creates per match

Smolensk

0.88

Znamya Truda

1.07

allows per match

Smolensk

1.18

Znamya Truda

1.59

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Smolensk+0.00on par

Znamya Truda+0.00on par

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Smolensk ↓

Znamya Truda →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–111%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

68%32%2.5

42%58%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Smolensk or draw

67%

Smolensk or Znamya Truda

72%

Draw or Znamya Truda

61%

Winning margin

Smolensk wins by 2+

17%

Znamya Truda wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Smolensk 1+ goals

71%

Smolensk 2+ goals

35%

Smolensk 3+ goals

13%

Znamya Truda 1+ goals

68%

Znamya Truda 2+ goals

31%

Znamya Truda 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Smolensk (draw refunded)

54%

Znamya Truda (draw refunded)

46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Smolensk at home — creates 0.88, concedes 1.18 · 17 matches

Znamya Truda away — creates 1.07, concedes 1.59 · 68 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Smolensk attack 0.88 + Znamya Truda defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.24

Znamya Truda attack 1.07 + Smolensk defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Smolensk scores more

39%

level

28%

Znamya Truda scores more

33%

Smolensk at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Smolensk will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

33'

N. Pankevich← I. Matsigura

37'

D. Zhemaytis← G. Sarkisyan

46'

D. Zakharov← A. Tsaritov

52'

B. Tsygankov

56'

A. Vasiljev← A. Fedichev

63'

E. Mamedov← D. Butrimov

65'

Y. Frolov← K. Lukjanov

72'

A. Savchenkov← A. Lavrenenko

76'

I. Solomonov← A. Vinokurov

79'

A. Sergienko← S. Obraztsov

90+3'

D. Zhemaytis

Smolensk

Znamya

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: S. Gunko

33'▲N. Pankevich←▼I. Matsigura

56'▲A. Vasiljev←▼A. Fedichev

72'▲A. Savchenkov←▼A. Lavrenenko

76'▲I. Solomonov←▼A. Vinokurov

79'▲A. Sergienko←▼S. Obraztsov

Smolensk substitutes

PankevichVasiljevSavchenkovSolomonovSergienko

Manager: A. Kertoake

37'▲D. Zhemaytis←▼G. Sarkisyan

46'▲D. Zakharov←▼A. Tsaritov

63'▲E. Mamedov←▼D. Butrimov

65'▲Y. Frolov←▼K. Lukjanov

Znamya Truda substitutes

ZhemaytisZakharovMamedovFrolov

Second League - Group 2: Smolensk 1–1 Znamya Truda

Smolensk and Znamya Truda drew 1-1 in Second League - Group 2 on September 27, 2020.

Goals: B. Tsygankov (52'), D. Zhemaytis (90+3').

The match was played at Stadion SGAFKST in Smolensk.

Smolensk vs Znamya Truda — Second League - Group 2 2020

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Second League - Group 2: Smolensk 1–1 Znamya Truda