Smolensk 2–1 Murom: Result & Stats

Smolensk

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Murom

11/1/2020

Second League - Group 2 · Group 2 - 14Stadion SGAFKST

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Smolensk32%

×Draw29%

Murom39%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SmolenskExpected goals in this matchMurom

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.02

1.15

Smolensk

1.02

Murom

1.15

Murom creates 13% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 55 away

0.88

creates per match

1.13

1.18

allows per match

1.16

creates per match

Smolensk

0.88

Murom

1.13

allows per match

Smolensk

1.18

Murom

1.16

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Smolensk+0.00on par

Murom+0.00on par

Total goals

Under63
Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No56
Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Smolensk ↓

Murom →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–113%

0–28%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–17%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–21%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

64%36%2.5

37%63%3.5

17%83%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Smolensk or draw

61%

Smolensk or Murom

71%

Draw or Murom

68%

Winning margin

Smolensk wins by 2+

12%

Murom wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Smolensk 1+ goals

64%

Smolensk 2+ goals

27%

Smolensk 3+ goals

8%

Murom 1+ goals

68%

Murom 2+ goals

32%

Murom 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Smolensk (draw refunded)

45%

Murom (draw refunded)

55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

30%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Smolensk at home — creates 0.88, concedes 1.18 · 17 matches

Murom away — creates 1.13, concedes 1.16 · 55 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Smolensk attack 0.88 + Murom defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.02

Murom attack 1.13 + Smolensk defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Smolensk scores more

32%

level

29%

Murom scores more

39%

Murom at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Murom will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff