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Smolensk vs Kolomna — Second League - Group 2 2020

Smolensk
Smolensk
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Kolomna
Kolomna
4/29/2021Second League - Group 2Second League - Group 2 · Group 2 - 22Stadion SGAFKST

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Smolensk47%
×Draw27%
Kolomna26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Smolensk
1.43
Kolomna
1.00

Smolensk creates 43% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 29 away

creates per match

Smolensk
0.88
Kolomna
0.83

allows per match

Smolensk
1.18
Kolomna
1.97

finishing

Smolensk+0.00on par
Kolomna+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Smolensk ↓

Kolomna →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Smolensk or draw
74%
Smolensk or Kolomna
73%
Draw or Kolomna
53%

Winning margin

Smolensk wins by 2+
23%
Kolomna wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Smolensk 1+ goals
76%
Smolensk 2+ goals
42%
Smolensk 3+ goals
17%
Kolomna 1+ goals
63%
Kolomna 2+ goals
26%
Kolomna 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Smolensk (draw refunded)
64%
Kolomna (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Smolensk at home — creates 0.88, concedes 1.18 · 17 matches

Kolomna away — creates 0.83, concedes 1.97 · 29 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Smolensk attack 0.88 + Kolomna defence 1.97 → ÷2 → 1.43

Kolomna attack 0.83 + Smolensk defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Smolensk scores more
47%
level
27%
Kolomna scores more
26%

Smolensk at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Smolensk will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Smolensk vs Kolomna

Smolensk beat Kolomna 1-0 in Second League - Group 2 on April 29, 2021.

The match was played at Stadion SGAFKST in Smolensk.