Smolensk 1–3 Dinamo Moskva II: Result & Stats

Smolensk

FT

1 – 3

HT: 0 – 0

Dinamo Moskva II

4/1/2021

Second League - Group 2 · Group 2 - 17Stadion SGAFKST

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Smolensk29%

×Draw28%

Dinamo Moskva II43%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SmolenskExpected goals in this matchDinamo Moskva II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.02

1.32

Smolensk

1.02

Dinamo Moskva II

1.32

Dinamo Moskva II creates 29% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 70 away

0.88

creates per match

1.46

1.18

allows per match

1.17

creates per match

Smolensk

0.88

Dinamo Moskva II

1.46

allows per match

Smolensk

1.18

Dinamo Moskva II

1.17

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Smolensk+0.00on par

Dinamo Moskva II+0.00on par

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Smolensk ↓

Dinamo Moskva II →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–113%

0–28%

0–34%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–29%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–05%

2–17%

2–24%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–21%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

68%32%2.5

41%59%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Smolensk or draw

57%

Smolensk or Dinamo Moskva II

72%

Draw or Dinamo Moskva II

71%

Winning margin

Smolensk wins by 2+

11%

Dinamo Moskva II wins by 2+

20%

Team goals

Smolensk 1+ goals

64%

Smolensk 2+ goals

27%

Smolensk 3+ goals

8%

Dinamo Moskva II 1+ goals

73%

Dinamo Moskva II 2+ goals

38%

Dinamo Moskva II 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Smolensk (draw refunded)

40%

Dinamo Moskva II (draw refunded)

60%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Smolensk at home — creates 0.88, concedes 1.18 · 17 matches

Dinamo Moskva II away — creates 1.46, concedes 1.17 · 70 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Smolensk attack 0.88 + Dinamo Moskva II defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.02

Dinamo Moskva II attack 1.46 + Smolensk defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.32

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Smolensk scores more

29%

level

28%

Dinamo Moskva II scores more

43%

Dinamo Moskva II at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Dinamo Moskva II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff