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Smitshoek vs HV & CV Quick — Derde Divisie - Sunday 2019

Smitshoek
Smitshoek
FT
4 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
HV & CV Quick
HV & CV Quick
9/21/2024Derde Divisie - SundayDerde Divisie - Sunday · Group B - 6Sportpark Smitshoek

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Smitshoek37%
×Draw22%
HV & CV Quick41%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Smitshoek
1.74
HV & CV Quick
1.85

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 17 home / 82 away

creates per match

Smitshoek
1.35
HV & CV Quick
1.22

allows per match

Smitshoek
2.47
HV & CV Quick
2.13

finishing

Smitshoek+0.00on par
HV & CV Quick+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Over
  • Over69
  • Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

69%Yes
  • Yes69
  • No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Smitshoek ↓

HV & CV Quick →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–28%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–15%
3–24%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
69%31%3.5
48%52%4.5
29%71%

Double chance

Smitshoek or draw
59%
Smitshoek or HV & CV Quick
78%
Draw or HV & CV Quick
63%

Winning margin

Smitshoek wins by 2+
19%
HV & CV Quick wins by 2+
22%

Team goals

Smitshoek 1+ goals
82%
Smitshoek 2+ goals
52%
Smitshoek 3+ goals
25%
HV & CV Quick 1+ goals
84%
HV & CV Quick 2+ goals
55%
HV & CV Quick 3+ goals
28%

Draw no bet

Smitshoek (draw refunded)
47%
HV & CV Quick (draw refunded)
53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
60%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Smitshoek at home — creates 1.35, concedes 2.47 · 17 matches

HV & CV Quick away — creates 1.22, concedes 2.13 · 82 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Smitshoek attack 1.35 + HV & CV Quick defence 2.13 → ÷2 → 1.74

HV & CV Quick attack 1.22 + Smitshoek defence 2.47 → ÷2 → 1.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Smitshoek scores more
37%
level
22%
HV & CV Quick scores more
41%

HV & CV Quick at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "HV & CV Quick will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Derde Divisie - Sunday: Smitshoek 4–0 HV & CV Quick

Smitshoek beat HV & CV Quick 4-0 in Derde Divisie - Sunday on September 21, 2024.

The match was played at Sportpark Smitshoek in Barendrecht.