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Smitshoek vs Gemert — Derde Divisie - Sunday 2019

Smitshoek
Smitshoek
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Gemert
Gemert
2/22/2025Derde Divisie - SundayDerde Divisie - Sunday · Group B - 24Sportpark Smitshoek

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Smitshoek30%
×Draw21%
Gemert49%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Smitshoek
1.63
Gemert
2.11

Gemert creates 29% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 99 away

creates per match

Smitshoek
1.35
Gemert
1.75

allows per match

Smitshoek
2.47
Gemert
1.90

finishing

Smitshoek+0.00on par
Gemert+0.00on par

Total goals

72%Over
  • Over72
  • Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

71%Yes
  • Yes71
  • No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Smitshoek ↓

Gemert →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–15%
0–25%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–04%
1–18%
1–29%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–24%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
72%28%3.5
51%49%4.5
32%68%

Double chance

Smitshoek or draw
51%
Smitshoek or Gemert
79%
Draw or Gemert
70%

Winning margin

Smitshoek wins by 2+
14%
Gemert wins by 2+
28%

Team goals

Smitshoek 1+ goals
80%
Smitshoek 2+ goals
48%
Smitshoek 3+ goals
22%
Gemert 1+ goals
88%
Gemert 2+ goals
62%
Gemert 3+ goals
35%

Draw no bet

Smitshoek (draw refunded)
38%
Gemert (draw refunded)
62%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
62%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Smitshoek at home — creates 1.35, concedes 2.47 · 17 matches

Gemert away — creates 1.75, concedes 1.90 · 99 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Smitshoek attack 1.35 + Gemert defence 1.90 → ÷2 → 1.63

Gemert attack 1.75 + Smitshoek defence 2.47 → ÷2 → 2.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Smitshoek scores more
30%
level
21%
Gemert scores more
49%

Gemert at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Gemert will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Derde Divisie - Sunday: Smitshoek 1–2 Gemert

Gemert beat Smitshoek 2-1 in Derde Divisie - Sunday on February 22, 2025.

The match was played at Sportpark Smitshoek in Barendrecht.