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Smitshoek vs Blauw Geel — Derde Divisie - Sunday 2019

Smitshoek
Smitshoek
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Blauw Geel
Blauw Geel
9/7/2024Derde Divisie - SundayDerde Divisie - Sunday · Group B - 4Sportpark Smitshoek

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Smitshoek27%
×Draw21%
Blauw Geel52%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Smitshoek
1.44
Blauw Geel
2.06

Blauw Geel creates 43% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 100 away

creates per match

Smitshoek
1.35
Blauw Geel
1.64

allows per match

Smitshoek
2.47
Blauw Geel
1.53

finishing

Smitshoek+0.00on par
Blauw Geel+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

67%Yes
  • Yes67
  • No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Smitshoek ↓

Blauw Geel →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–16%
0–26%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–04%
1–19%
1–29%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–27%
2–35%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
68%32%3.5
46%54%4.5
27%73%

Double chance

Smitshoek or draw
48%
Smitshoek or Blauw Geel
79%
Draw or Blauw Geel
73%

Winning margin

Smitshoek wins by 2+
12%
Blauw Geel wins by 2+
30%

Team goals

Smitshoek 1+ goals
76%
Smitshoek 2+ goals
42%
Smitshoek 3+ goals
18%
Blauw Geel 1+ goals
87%
Blauw Geel 2+ goals
61%
Blauw Geel 3+ goals
34%

Draw no bet

Smitshoek (draw refunded)
34%
Blauw Geel (draw refunded)
66%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
58%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Smitshoek at home — creates 1.35, concedes 2.47 · 17 matches

Blauw Geel away — creates 1.64, concedes 1.53 · 100 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Smitshoek attack 1.35 + Blauw Geel defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.44

Blauw Geel attack 1.64 + Smitshoek defence 2.47 → ÷2 → 2.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Smitshoek scores more
27%
level
21%
Blauw Geel scores more
52%

Blauw Geel at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Blauw Geel will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Derde Divisie - Sunday: Smitshoek 1–1 Blauw Geel

Smitshoek and Blauw Geel drew 1-1 in Derde Divisie - Sunday on September 7, 2024.

The match was played at Sportpark Smitshoek in Barendrecht.