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Smitshoek vs AWC — Derde Divisie - Relegation Round 2022

Smitshoek
Smitshoek
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
AWC
AWC
5/29/2024Derde Divisie - Relegation RoundDerde Divisie - Relegation Round · Relegation RoundSportpark Smitshoek

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Smitshoek30%
×Draw29%
AWC41%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Smitshoek
0.96
AWC
1.17

AWC creates 22% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 3 away

creates per match

Smitshoek
1.25
AWC
1.33

allows per match

Smitshoek
1.00
AWC
0.67

finishing

Smitshoek+0.00on par
AWC+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Under
  • Under64
  • Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Smitshoek ↓

AWC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–114%
0–28%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–16%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
63%37%2.5
36%64%3.5
17%83%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Smitshoek or draw
59%
Smitshoek or AWC
71%
Draw or AWC
70%

Winning margin

Smitshoek wins by 2+
11%
AWC wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Smitshoek 1+ goals
62%
Smitshoek 2+ goals
25%
Smitshoek 3+ goals
7%
AWC 1+ goals
69%
AWC 2+ goals
33%
AWC 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Smitshoek (draw refunded)
42%
AWC (draw refunded)
58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Smitshoek at home — creates 1.25, concedes 1.00 · 4 matches

AWC away — creates 1.33, concedes 0.67 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Smitshoek attack 1.25 + AWC defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 0.96

AWC attack 1.33 + Smitshoek defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Smitshoek scores more
30%
level
29%
AWC scores more
41%

AWC at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "AWC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Smitshoek vs AWC

Smitshoek and AWC drew 1-1 in Derde Divisie - Relegation Round on May 29, 2024.

The match was played at Sportpark Smitshoek in Barendrecht.