Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Smiltene vs Rīgas FS II — 1. Liga 2026

Smiltene
Smiltene
FT
0 – 3
HT: 0 – 2
Rīgas FS II
Rīgas FS II
8/17/20241. Liga1. Liga · Round 16Tepera stadions

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 56+ matches

Smiltene29%
×Draw21%
Rīgas FS II50%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Smiltene
1.61
Rīgas FS II
2.15

Rīgas FS II creates 34% more chances

Season form · 82 home / 56 away

creates per match

Smiltene
1.67
Rīgas FS II
1.84

allows per match

Smiltene
2.46
Rīgas FS II
1.55

finishing

Smiltene+0.00on par
Rīgas FS II+0.00on par

Total goals

72%Over
  • Over72
  • Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

71%Yes
  • Yes71
  • No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Smiltene ↓

Rīgas FS II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–15%
0–25%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–04%
1–18%
1–29%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–24%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
72%28%3.5
51%49%4.5
32%68%

Double chance

Smiltene or draw
50%
Smiltene or Rīgas FS II
79%
Draw or Rīgas FS II
71%

Winning margin

Smiltene wins by 2+
14%
Rīgas FS II wins by 2+
29%

Team goals

Smiltene 1+ goals
80%
Smiltene 2+ goals
48%
Smiltene 3+ goals
22%
Rīgas FS II 1+ goals
88%
Rīgas FS II 2+ goals
63%
Rīgas FS II 3+ goals
36%

Draw no bet

Smiltene (draw refunded)
37%
Rīgas FS II (draw refunded)
63%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
62%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Smiltene at home — creates 1.67, concedes 2.46 · 82 matches

Rīgas FS II away — creates 1.84, concedes 1.55 · 56 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Smiltene attack 1.67 + Rīgas FS II defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.61

Rīgas FS II attack 1.84 + Smiltene defence 2.46 → ÷2 → 2.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Smiltene scores more
29%
level
21%
Rīgas FS II scores more
50%

Rīgas FS II at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Rīgas FS II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

1. Liga: Smiltene 0–3 Rīgas FS II

Rīgas FS II beat Smiltene 3-0 in 1. Liga on August 17, 2024.

The match was played at Tepera stadions in Smiltene.