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Smiltene vs JFC Jelgava — Cup 2020

Smiltene
Smiltene
FT
2 – 0
JFC Jelgava
JFC Jelgava
7/31/2021CupCup · Play-off RoundCēsu pilsētas stadions

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Smiltene45%
×Draw23%
JFC Jelgava32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Smiltene
1.80
JFC Jelgava
1.50

Smiltene creates 20% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 5 away

creates per match

Smiltene
1.20
JFC Jelgava
1.00

allows per match

Smiltene
2.00
JFC Jelgava
2.40

finishing

Smiltene+0.00on par
JFC Jelgava+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Smiltene ↓

JFC Jelgava →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–27%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
42%58%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Smiltene or draw
68%
Smiltene or JFC Jelgava
77%
Draw or JFC Jelgava
55%

Winning margin

Smiltene wins by 2+
24%
JFC Jelgava wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Smiltene 1+ goals
83%
Smiltene 2+ goals
54%
Smiltene 3+ goals
27%
JFC Jelgava 1+ goals
78%
JFC Jelgava 2+ goals
44%
JFC Jelgava 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Smiltene (draw refunded)
58%
JFC Jelgava (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
55%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Smiltene at home — creates 1.20, concedes 2.00 · 5 matches

JFC Jelgava away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.40 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Smiltene attack 1.20 + JFC Jelgava defence 2.40 → ÷2 → 1.80

JFC Jelgava attack 1.00 + Smiltene defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Smiltene scores more
45%
level
23%
JFC Jelgava scores more
32%

Smiltene at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Smiltene will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Cup: Smiltene 2–0 JFC Jelgava

Smiltene beat JFC Jelgava 2-0 in Cup on July 31, 2021.

The match was played at Cēsu pilsētas stadions in Cēsis.