Smiltene 7–1 Balvu: Result & Stats | 1. Liga

Smiltene

FT

7 – 1

Balvu

8/17/2019

1. Liga · Round 16Tepera stadions (Smiltene)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

Smiltene77%

×Draw12%

Balvu12%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SmilteneExpected goals in this matchBalvu

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

4.13

1.68

Smiltene

4.13

Balvu

1.68

Smiltene creates 146% more chances

Season form · 82 home / 20 away

1.67

creates per match

0.90

2.46

allows per match

6.60

creates per match

Smiltene

1.67

Balvu

0.90

allows per match

Smiltene

2.46

Balvu

6.60

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Smiltene+0.00on par

Balvu+0.00on par

Total goals

Over92
Under8

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes80
No20

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Smiltene ↓

Balvu →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–00%

0–11%

0–20%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–01%

1–12%

1–22%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–03%

2–15%

2–24%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–17%

3–26%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–04%

4–17%

4–26%

4–33%

4–41%

Most likely 3–1 (7%) · grid covers 67% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

100%0%1.5

98%2%2.5

92%8%3.5

81%19%4.5

64%36%

Double chance

Smiltene or draw

88%

Smiltene or Balvu

88%

Draw or Balvu

23%

Winning margin

Smiltene wins by 2+

60%

Balvu wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Smiltene 1+ goals

98%

Smiltene 2+ goals

91%

Smiltene 3+ goals

75%

Balvu 1+ goals

81%

Balvu 2+ goals

50%

Balvu 3+ goals

24%

Draw no bet

Smiltene (draw refunded)

87%

Balvu (draw refunded)

13%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

77%

Both score & under 3

2%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Smiltene at home — creates 1.67, concedes 2.46 · 82 matches

Balvu away — creates 0.90, concedes 6.60 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Smiltene attack 1.67 + Balvu defence 6.60 → ÷2 → 4.13

Balvu attack 0.90 + Smiltene defence 2.46 → ÷2 → 1.68

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 77%?"

Smiltene scores more

77%

level

12%

Balvu scores more

12%

Smiltene at 77% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 77% does not mean "Smiltene will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff