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Smedby vs Trosa-Vagnhärad SK — Division 2 - Södra Svealand 2019

Smedby
Smedby
FT
3 – 0
HT: 3 – 0
Trosa-Vagnhärad SK
Trosa-Vagnhärad SK
4/2/2022Division 2 - Södra SvealandDivision 2 - Södra Svealand · Södra Svealand - 1PreZero Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Smedby57%
×Draw20%
Trosa-Vagnhärad SK23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Smedby
2.25
Trosa-Vagnhärad SK
1.36

Smedby creates 65% more chances

Season form · 74 home / 34 away

creates per match

Smedby
1.73
Trosa-Vagnhärad SK
1.26

allows per match

Smedby
1.46
Trosa-Vagnhärad SK
2.76

finishing

Smedby+0.00on par
Trosa-Vagnhärad SK+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Over
  • Over70
  • Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Smedby ↓

Trosa-Vagnhärad SK →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–18%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
70%30%3.5
48%52%4.5
29%71%

Double chance

Smedby or draw
77%
Smedby or Trosa-Vagnhärad SK
80%
Draw or Trosa-Vagnhärad SK
43%

Winning margin

Smedby wins by 2+
35%
Trosa-Vagnhärad SK wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Smedby 1+ goals
89%
Smedby 2+ goals
65%
Smedby 3+ goals
39%
Trosa-Vagnhärad SK 1+ goals
74%
Trosa-Vagnhärad SK 2+ goals
39%
Trosa-Vagnhärad SK 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Smedby (draw refunded)
72%
Trosa-Vagnhärad SK (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
58%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Smedby at home — creates 1.73, concedes 1.46 · 74 matches

Trosa-Vagnhärad SK away — creates 1.26, concedes 2.76 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Smedby attack 1.73 + Trosa-Vagnhärad SK defence 2.76 → ÷2 → 2.25

Trosa-Vagnhärad SK attack 1.26 + Smedby defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.36

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Smedby scores more
57%
level
20%
Trosa-Vagnhärad SK scores more
23%

Smedby at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Smedby will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Division 2 - Södra Svealand: Smedby 3–0 Trosa-Vagnhärad SK

Smedby beat Trosa-Vagnhärad SK 3-0 in Division 2 - Södra Svealand on April 2, 2022.

The match was played at PreZero Arena in Norrköping.