Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Smedby vs Mjölby — Division 2 - Södra Svealand 2019

Smedby
Smedby
FT
2 – 0
Mjölby
Mjölby
9/7/2021Division 2 - Södra SvealandDivision 2 - Södra Svealand · Södra Svealand - 10PreZero Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 40+ matches

Smedby55%
×Draw21%
Mjölby24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Smedby
2.13
Mjölby
1.34

Smedby creates 59% more chances

Season form · 74 home / 40 away

creates per match

Smedby
1.73
Mjölby
1.23

allows per match

Smedby
1.46
Mjölby
2.52

finishing

Smedby+0.00on par
Mjölby+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Over
  • Over67
  • Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Smedby ↓

Mjölby →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–19%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
67%33%3.5
45%55%4.5
26%74%

Double chance

Smedby or draw
76%
Smedby or Mjölby
79%
Draw or Mjölby
45%

Winning margin

Smedby wins by 2+
33%
Mjölby wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Smedby 1+ goals
88%
Smedby 2+ goals
63%
Smedby 3+ goals
35%
Mjölby 1+ goals
74%
Mjölby 2+ goals
39%
Mjölby 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Smedby (draw refunded)
70%
Mjölby (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Smedby at home — creates 1.73, concedes 1.46 · 74 matches

Mjölby away — creates 1.23, concedes 2.52 · 40 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Smedby attack 1.73 + Mjölby defence 2.52 → ÷2 → 2.13

Mjölby attack 1.23 + Smedby defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.34

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Smedby scores more
55%
level
21%
Mjölby scores more
24%

Smedby at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Smedby will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Division 2 - Södra Svealand: Smedby 2–0 Mjölby

Smedby beat Mjölby 2-0 in Division 2 - Södra Svealand on September 7, 2021.

The match was played at PreZero Arena in Norrköping.