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Šmartno vs Primorje — 2. SNL 2019

Šmartno
Šmartno
CANC
14:30
Primorje
Primorje
4/11/20212. SNL2. SNL · Round 23

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Šmartno18%
×Draw21%
Primorje60%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Šmartno
0.97
Primorje
1.97

Primorje creates 103% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 56 away

creates per match

Šmartno
0.73
Primorje
1.13

allows per match

Šmartno
2.82
Primorje
1.21

finishing

Šmartno+0.00on par
Primorje+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Šmartno ↓

Primorje →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–110%
0–210%
0–37%
0–43%
1
1–05%
1–110%
1–210%
1–37%
1–43%
2
2–02%
2–15%
2–25%
2–33%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
34%66%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Šmartno or draw
40%
Šmartno or Primorje
79%
Draw or Primorje
82%

Winning margin

Šmartno wins by 2+
6%
Primorje wins by 2+
36%

Team goals

Šmartno 1+ goals
62%
Šmartno 2+ goals
25%
Šmartno 3+ goals
7%
Primorje 1+ goals
86%
Primorje 2+ goals
58%
Primorje 3+ goals
31%

Draw no bet

Šmartno (draw refunded)
23%
Primorje (draw refunded)
77%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Šmartno at home — creates 0.73, concedes 2.82 · 11 matches

Primorje away — creates 1.13, concedes 1.21 · 56 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Šmartno attack 0.73 + Primorje defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 0.97

Primorje attack 1.13 + Šmartno defence 2.82 → ÷2 → 1.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Šmartno scores more
18%
level
21%
Primorje scores more
60%

Primorje at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Primorje will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Šmartno vs Primorje — Match Preview

Šmartno face Primorje on April 11, 2021 in this 2. SNL fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.