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Šmartno vs Dob — 2. SNL 2019

Šmartno
Šmartno
CANC
15:00
Dob
Dob
5/19/20212. SNL2. SNL · Round 30

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Šmartno22%
×Draw21%
Dob57%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Šmartno
1.27
Dob
2.13

Dob creates 68% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 51 away

creates per match

Šmartno
0.73
Dob
1.45

allows per match

Šmartno
2.82
Dob
1.80

finishing

Šmartno+0.00on par
Dob+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Over
  • Over66
  • Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Šmartno ↓

Dob →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–17%
0–28%
0–35%
0–43%
1
1–04%
1–19%
1–210%
1–37%
1–44%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
66%34%3.5
44%56%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

Šmartno or draw
43%
Šmartno or Dob
79%
Draw or Dob
78%

Winning margin

Šmartno wins by 2+
9%
Dob wins by 2+
35%

Team goals

Šmartno 1+ goals
72%
Šmartno 2+ goals
36%
Šmartno 3+ goals
14%
Dob 1+ goals
88%
Dob 2+ goals
63%
Dob 3+ goals
35%

Draw no bet

Šmartno (draw refunded)
28%
Dob (draw refunded)
72%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Šmartno at home — creates 0.73, concedes 2.82 · 11 matches

Dob away — creates 1.45, concedes 1.80 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Šmartno attack 0.73 + Dob defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 1.27

Dob attack 1.45 + Šmartno defence 2.82 → ÷2 → 2.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Šmartno scores more
22%
level
21%
Dob scores more
57%

Dob at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Dob will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Šmartno face Dob (2. SNL)

2. SNL returns with Šmartno hosting Dob. Match starts May 19, 2021. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.