Šmarje pri Jelšah 1–3 Cirkulane: Result & Stats

Šmarje pri Jelšah

FT

1 – 3

Cirkulane

4/24/2021

3. SNL - East · East - 10Stadion Šmarje pri Jelšah

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Šmarje pri Jelšah16%

×Draw19%

Cirkulane65%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Šmarje pri JelšahExpected goals in this matchCirkulane

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.00

2.25

Šmarje pri Jelšah

1.00

Cirkulane

2.25

Cirkulane creates 125% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 8 away

1.00

creates per match

1.88

2.63

allows per match

1.00

creates per match

Šmarje pri Jelšah

1.00

Cirkulane

1.88

allows per match

Šmarje pri Jelšah

2.63

Cirkulane

1.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Šmarje pri Jelšah+0.00on par

Cirkulane+0.00on par

Total goals

Over63
Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Šmarje pri Jelšah ↓

Cirkulane →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–19%

0–210%

0–37%

0–44%

1

1–04%

1–19%

1–210%

1–37%

1–44%

2

2–02%

2–14%

2–25%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–01%

3–11%

3–22%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–2 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

63%37%3.5

40%60%4.5

22%78%

Double chance

Šmarje pri Jelšah or draw

35%

Šmarje pri Jelšah or Cirkulane

81%

Draw or Cirkulane

84%

Winning margin

Šmarje pri Jelšah wins by 2+

5%

Cirkulane wins by 2+

42%

Team goals

Šmarje pri Jelšah 1+ goals

63%

Šmarje pri Jelšah 2+ goals

26%

Šmarje pri Jelšah 3+ goals

8%

Cirkulane 1+ goals

89%

Cirkulane 2+ goals

65%

Cirkulane 3+ goals

39%

Draw no bet

Šmarje pri Jelšah (draw refunded)

19%

Cirkulane (draw refunded)

81%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

48%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Šmarje pri Jelšah at home — creates 1.00, concedes 2.63 · 8 matches

Cirkulane away — creates 1.88, concedes 1.00 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Šmarje pri Jelšah attack 1.00 + Cirkulane defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.00

Cirkulane attack 1.88 + Šmarje pri Jelšah defence 2.63 → ÷2 → 2.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 65%?"

Šmarje pri Jelšah scores more

16%

level

19%

Cirkulane scores more

65%

Cirkulane at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "Cirkulane will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Šmarje pri Jelšah vs Cirkulane

Cirkulane beat Šmarje pri Jelšah 3-1 in 3. SNL - East on April 24, 2021.

The match was played at Stadion Šmarje pri Jelšah in Šmarje pri Jelšah.

Šmarje pri Jelšah vs Cirkulane — 3. SNL - East 2020

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Head to Head

Match Recap: Šmarje pri Jelšah vs Cirkulane