Šmarje pri Jelšah 0–5 Bistrica: Result & Stats

Šmarje pri Jelšah

FT

0 – 5

Bistrica

9/26/2020

3. SNL - East · East - 6Stadion Šmarje pri Jelšah

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Šmarje pri Jelšah9%

×Draw14%

Bistrica78%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Šmarje pri JelšahExpected goals in this matchBistrica

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.88

2.88

Šmarje pri Jelšah

0.88

Bistrica

2.88

Bistrica creates 227% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 8 away

1.00

creates per match

3.13

2.63

allows per match

0.75

creates per match

Šmarje pri Jelšah

1.00

Bistrica

3.13

allows per match

Šmarje pri Jelšah

2.63

Bistrica

0.75

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Šmarje pri Jelšah+0.00on par

Bistrica+0.00on par

Total goals

Over72
Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Šmarje pri Jelšah ↓

Bistrica →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–17%

0–210%

0–310%

0–47%

1

1–02%

1–16%

1–29%

1–38%

1–46%

2

2–01%

2–13%

2–24%

2–34%

2–43%

3

3–00%

3–11%

3–21%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–2 (10%) · grid covers 86% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

89%11%2.5

72%28%3.5

50%50%4.5

31%69%

Double chance

Šmarje pri Jelšah or draw

22%

Šmarje pri Jelšah or Bistrica

86%

Draw or Bistrica

91%

Winning margin

Šmarje pri Jelšah wins by 2+

3%

Bistrica wins by 2+

57%

Team goals

Šmarje pri Jelšah 1+ goals

59%

Šmarje pri Jelšah 2+ goals

22%

Šmarje pri Jelšah 3+ goals

6%

Bistrica 1+ goals

94%

Bistrica 2+ goals

78%

Bistrica 3+ goals

54%

Draw no bet

Šmarje pri Jelšah (draw refunded)

10%

Bistrica (draw refunded)

90%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

49%

Both score & under 3

6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Šmarje pri Jelšah at home — creates 1.00, concedes 2.63 · 8 matches

Bistrica away — creates 3.13, concedes 0.75 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Šmarje pri Jelšah attack 1.00 + Bistrica defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 0.88

Bistrica attack 3.13 + Šmarje pri Jelšah defence 2.63 → ÷2 → 2.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 78%?"

Šmarje pri Jelšah scores more

9%

level

14%

Bistrica scores more

78%

Bistrica at 78% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 78% does not mean "Bistrica will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff