Smári 0–4 Njardvik: Result & Stats | Cup

Smári

0 – 4

Njardvik

6/5/2020

Cup · 1st RoundFagrilundur Gervigras

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Smári20%

×Draw17%

Njardvik63%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SmáriExpected goals in this matchNjardvik

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.75

3.07

Smári

1.75

Njardvik

3.07

Njardvik creates 75% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 11 away

1.67

creates per match

2.64

3.50

allows per match

1.82

creates per match

Smári

1.67

Njardvik

2.64

allows per match

Smári

3.50

Njardvik

1.82

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Smári+0.00on par

Njardvik+0.00on par

Total goals

Over85
Under15

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes79
No21

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Smári ↓

Njardvik →

0–01%

0–13%

0–24%

0–34%

0–43%

1–01%

1–15%

1–27%

1–37%

1–45%

2–01%

2–14%

2–26%

2–36%

2–45%

3–01%

3–12%

3–24%

3–34%

3–43%

4–00%

4–11%

4–22%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (7%) · grid covers 81% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

95%5%2.5

85%15%3.5

70%30%4.5

51%49%

Double chance

Smári or draw

37%

Smári or Njardvik

83%

Draw or Njardvik

80%

Winning margin

Smári wins by 2+

Njardvik wins by 2+

44%

Team goals

Smári 1+ goals

83%

Smári 2+ goals

52%

Smári 3+ goals

25%

Njardvik 1+ goals

95%

Njardvik 2+ goals

80%

Njardvik 3+ goals

58%

Draw no bet

Smári (draw refunded)

24%

Njardvik (draw refunded)

76%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

74%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Smári at home — creates 1.67, concedes 3.50 · 6 matches

Njardvik away — creates 2.64, concedes 1.82 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Smári attack 1.67 + Njardvik defence 1.82 → ÷2 → 1.75

Njardvik attack 2.64 + Smári defence 3.50 → ÷2 → 3.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 63%?"

Smári scores more

20%

level

17%

Njardvik scores more

63%

Njardvik at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Njardvik will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff