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Smári vs KFS — Cup 2019

Smári
Smári
FT
2 – 4
HT: 0 – 1
KFS
KFS
4/10/2022CupCup · 1st RoundFagrilundur Gervigras

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Smári50%
×Draw18%
KFS32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Smári
2.94
KFS
2.36

Smári creates 25% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 9 away

creates per match

Smári
1.67
KFS
1.22

allows per match

Smári
3.50
KFS
4.22

finishing

Smári+0.00on par
KFS+0.00on par

Total goals

89%Over
  • Over89
  • Under11

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

86%Yes
  • Yes86
  • No14

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Smári ↓

KFS →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–11%
0–21%
0–31%
0–41%
1
1–02%
1–14%
1–24%
1–33%
1–42%
2
2–02%
2–15%
2–26%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–02%
3–15%
3–26%
3–35%
3–43%
4
4–02%
4–14%
4–25%
4–34%
4–42%

Most likely 2–2 (6%) · grid covers 78% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
97%3%2.5
89%11%3.5
76%24%4.5
59%41%

Double chance

Smári or draw
68%
Smári or KFS
82%
Draw or KFS
50%

Winning margin

Smári wins by 2+
32%
KFS wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Smári 1+ goals
95%
Smári 2+ goals
79%
Smári 3+ goals
55%
KFS 1+ goals
90%
KFS 2+ goals
68%
KFS 3+ goals
41%

Draw no bet

Smári (draw refunded)
61%
KFS (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
82%
Both score & under 3
4%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Smári at home — creates 1.67, concedes 3.50 · 6 matches

KFS away — creates 1.22, concedes 4.22 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Smári attack 1.67 + KFS defence 4.22 → ÷2 → 2.94

KFS attack 1.22 + Smári defence 3.50 → ÷2 → 2.36

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Smári scores more
50%
level
18%
KFS scores more
32%

Smári at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Smári will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Cup: Smári 2–4 KFS

KFS beat Smári 4-2 in Cup on April 10, 2022.

The match was played at Fagrilundur Gervigras in Kópavogur.