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Smári vs Ægir — Cup 2019

Smári
Smári
FT
1 – 6
HT: 0 – 3
Ægir
Ægir
4/8/2023CupCup · 2nd RoundFífan

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Smári13%
×Draw13%
Ægir74%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Smári
1.52
Ægir
3.62

Ægir creates 138% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 11 away

creates per match

Smári
1.67
Ægir
3.73

allows per match

Smári
3.50
Ægir
1.36

finishing

Smári+0.00on par
Ægir+0.00on par

Total goals

88%Over
  • Over88
  • Under12

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

76%Yes
  • Yes76
  • No24

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Smári ↓

Ægir →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–12%
0–24%
0–35%
0–45%
1
1–01%
1–13%
1–26%
1–38%
1–47%
2
2–01%
2–13%
2–25%
2–36%
2–45%
3
3–00%
3–11%
3–22%
3–33%
3–43%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–3 (8%) · grid covers 75% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
96%4%2.5
88%12%3.5
73%27%4.5
55%45%

Double chance

Smári or draw
26%
Smári or Ægir
87%
Draw or Ægir
87%

Winning margin

Smári wins by 2+
5%
Ægir wins by 2+
56%

Team goals

Smári 1+ goals
78%
Smári 2+ goals
45%
Smári 3+ goals
20%
Ægir 1+ goals
97%
Ægir 2+ goals
87%
Ægir 3+ goals
68%

Draw no bet

Smári (draw refunded)
15%
Ægir (draw refunded)
85%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
72%
Both score & under 3
3%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Smári at home — creates 1.67, concedes 3.50 · 6 matches

Ægir away — creates 3.73, concedes 1.36 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Smári attack 1.67 + Ægir defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.52

Ægir attack 3.73 + Smári defence 3.50 → ÷2 → 3.62

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 74%?"

Smári scores more
13%
level
13%
Ægir scores more
74%

Ægir at 74% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 74% does not mean "Ægir will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Smári vs Ægir

Ægir beat Smári 6-1 in Cup on April 8, 2023.

The match was played at Fífan in Kópavogur.