Smári 2–2 Árbær: Result & Stats | Cup

Smári

AET

2 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

Árbær

4/5/2024

Cup · 1st RoundFagrilundur Gervigras

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Smári44%

×Draw18%

Árbær38%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SmáriExpected goals in this matchÁrbær

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.83

2.65

Smári

2.83

Árbær

2.65

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 6 home / 5 away

1.67

creates per match

1.80

3.50

allows per match

4.00

creates per match

Smári

1.67

Árbær

1.80

allows per match

Smári

3.50

Árbær

4.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Smári+0.00on par

Árbær+0.00on par

Total goals

Over91
Under9

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes87
No13

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Smári ↓

Árbær →

0–00%

0–11%

0–22%

0–31%

0–41%

1–01%

1–13%

1–24%

1–34%

1–43%

2–02%

2–15%

2–26%

2–35%

2–44%

3–02%

3–14%

3–26%

3–35%

3–43%

4–01%

4–13%

4–24%

4–34%

4–42%

Most likely 2–2 (6%) · grid covers 77% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

100%0%1.5

97%3%2.5

91%9%3.5

79%21%4.5

62%38%

Double chance

Smári or draw

62%

Smári or Árbær

82%

Draw or Árbær

56%

Winning margin

Smári wins by 2+

27%

Árbær wins by 2+

22%

Team goals

Smári 1+ goals

94%

Smári 2+ goals

77%

Smári 3+ goals

53%

Árbær 1+ goals

93%

Árbær 2+ goals

74%

Árbær 3+ goals

48%

Draw no bet

Smári (draw refunded)

53%

Árbær (draw refunded)

47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

84%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Smári at home — creates 1.67, concedes 3.50 · 6 matches

Árbær away — creates 1.80, concedes 4.00 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Smári attack 1.67 + Árbær defence 4.00 → ÷2 → 2.83

Árbær attack 1.80 + Smári defence 3.50 → ÷2 → 2.65

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 44%?"

Smári scores more

44%

level

18%

Árbær scores more

38%

Smári at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Smári will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff