Slovenia 1–0 Croatia: Result & Stats | League #32

Slovenia

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Croatia

S. Lovric 15'

3/24/2021

League #32 · Group Stage - 1Stadion Stožice

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Slovenia41%

×Draw41%

Croatia18%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SloveniaExpected goals in this matchCroatia

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.77

0.40

Slovenia

0.77

Croatia

0.40

Slovenia creates 93% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 3 away

1.20

creates per match

0.00

0.80

allows per match

0.33

creates per match

Slovenia

1.20

Croatia

0.00

allows per match

Slovenia

0.80

Croatia

0.33

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Slovenia+0.00on par

Croatia+0.00on par

Total goals

Under89
Over11

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No82
Yes18

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Slovenia ↓

Croatia →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–031%

0–112%

0–22%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–024%

1–110%

1–22%

1–30%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–14%

2–21%

2–30%

2–40%

3

3–02%

3–11%

3–20%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (31%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

69%31%1.5

33%67%2.5

11%89%3.5

3%97%4.5

1%99%

Double chance

Slovenia or draw

82%

Slovenia or Croatia

59%

Draw or Croatia

59%

Winning margin

Slovenia wins by 2+

13%

Croatia wins by 2+

3%

Team goals

Slovenia 1+ goals

54%

Slovenia 2+ goals

18%

Slovenia 3+ goals

4%

Croatia 1+ goals

33%

Croatia 2+ goals

6%

Croatia 3+ goals

1%

Draw no bet

Slovenia (draw refunded)

70%

Croatia (draw refunded)

30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

8%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Slovenia at home — creates 1.20, concedes 0.80 · 10 matches

Croatia away — creates 0.00, concedes 0.33 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Slovenia attack 1.20 + Croatia defence 0.33 → ÷2 → 0.77

Croatia attack 0.00 + Slovenia defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 0.40

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Slovenia scores more

41%

level

41%

Croatia scores more

18%

Slovenia at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Slovenia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10

L. Modrić

Croatia · M

7.9

Match Events

15'

24'

35'

46'

61'

64'

65'

65'

J. Brekalo← A. Kramarić

68'

Domagoj Vida

69'

A. Vetrih← J. Bijol

69'

B. Kramer← A. Šporar

69'

A. Budimir← N. Vlašić

76'

Ante Budimir

77'

Miha Mevlja

82'

M. Pašalić← M. Kovačić

87'

K. Bajrič← S. Lovric

87'

N. Skubic← J. Iličić

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

SloveniaCroatia

Overview

30%Possession70%

8Total Shots11

2Corners3

11Fouls15

Shots

8Total Shots11

4On Target3

3Off Target6

1Blocked2

6Inside Box8

2Outside Box3

Passing

30%Possession70%

330Total Passes736

250Accurate Passes657

76%Pass Accuracy89%

Goalkeeping

3Saves3

Discipline

11Fouls15

2Yellow Cards5

0Offsides2