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Slovenia vs Belgium — Friendlies 2026

Slovenia
Slovenia
CANC
00:00
Belgium
Belgium
3/29/2022FriendliesFriendlies · Friendlies 1

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Slovenia40%
×Draw24%
Belgium36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Slovenia
1.61
Belgium
1.52

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 10 home / 9 away

creates per match

Slovenia
1.90
Belgium
2.44

allows per match

Slovenia
0.60
Belgium
1.33

finishing

Slovenia+0.00on par
Belgium+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Slovenia ↓

Belgium →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
60%40%3.5
38%62%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Slovenia or draw
64%
Slovenia or Belgium
76%
Draw or Belgium
60%

Winning margin

Slovenia wins by 2+
20%
Belgium wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Slovenia 1+ goals
80%
Slovenia 2+ goals
48%
Slovenia 3+ goals
22%
Belgium 1+ goals
78%
Belgium 2+ goals
45%
Belgium 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Slovenia (draw refunded)
53%
Belgium (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Slovenia at home — creates 1.90, concedes 0.60 · 10 matches

Belgium away — creates 2.44, concedes 1.33 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Slovenia attack 1.90 + Belgium defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.61

Belgium attack 2.44 + Slovenia defence 0.60 → ÷2 → 1.52

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Slovenia scores more
40%
level
24%
Belgium scores more
36%

Slovenia at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Slovenia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Slovenia face Belgium (Friendlies)

Friendlies returns with Slovenia hosting Belgium. Match starts March 29, 2022. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.