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Slovenia U19 W vs Poland U19 W — Friendlies Women 2026

Slovenia U19 W
Slovenia U19 W
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 2
Poland U19 W
Poland U19 W
L. Swirska 8'
J. Langosz 6'
10/25/2025Friendlies WomenFriendlies Women · Friendlies

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Slovenia U19 W9%
×Draw24%
Poland U19 W67%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Slovenia U19 W
0.40
Poland U19 W
1.60

Poland U19 W creates 300% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 5 away

creates per match

Slovenia U19 W
0.80
Poland U19 W
1.20

allows per match

Slovenia U19 W
2.00
Poland U19 W
0.00

finishing

Slovenia U19 W+0.00on par
Poland U19 W+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Under
  • Under68
  • Over32

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

74%No
  • No74
  • Yes26

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Slovenia U19 W ↓

Poland U19 W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–122%
0–217%
0–39%
0–44%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–27%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–01%
2–12%
2–21%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–00%
3–10%
3–20%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (22%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
59%41%2.5
32%68%3.5
14%86%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Slovenia U19 W or draw
33%
Slovenia U19 W or Poland U19 W
76%
Draw or Poland U19 W
91%

Winning margin

Slovenia U19 W wins by 2+
2%
Poland U19 W wins by 2+
38%

Team goals

Slovenia U19 W 1+ goals
33%
Slovenia U19 W 2+ goals
6%
Slovenia U19 W 3+ goals
1%
Poland U19 W 1+ goals
80%
Poland U19 W 2+ goals
47%
Poland U19 W 3+ goals
22%

Draw no bet

Slovenia U19 W (draw refunded)
12%
Poland U19 W (draw refunded)
88%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
18%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Slovenia U19 W at home — creates 0.80, concedes 2.00 · 5 matches

Poland U19 W away — creates 1.20, concedes 0.00 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Slovenia U19 W attack 0.80 + Poland U19 W defence 0.00 → ÷2 → 0.40

Poland U19 W attack 1.20 + Slovenia U19 W defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.60

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 67%?"

Slovenia U19 W scores more
9%
level
24%
Poland U19 W scores more
67%

Poland U19 W at 67% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 67% does not mean "Poland U19 W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

6'
J. Langosz
8'
L. Swirska

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Slovenia U19 W vs Poland U19 W

Poland U19 W beat Slovenia U19 W 2-0 in Friendlies Women on October 25, 2025.

Goals: J. Langosz (6'), L. Swirska (8').