Slovenia U19 0–2 Netherlands U19: Result & Stats

Slovenia U19

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

Netherlands U19

Z. Redmond 82'

L. Topalović 68' (OG)

11/13/2024

UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification · Qualifying Round - 4Gjaltema Stadion aan De Langeleegte

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Slovenia U1913%

×Draw20%

Netherlands U1967%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Slovenia U19Expected goals in this matchNetherlands U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.73

2.02

Slovenia U19

0.73

Netherlands U19

2.02

Netherlands U19 creates 177% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 10 away

0.86

creates per match

2.90

1.14

allows per match

0.60

creates per match

Slovenia U19

0.86

Netherlands U19

2.90

allows per match

Slovenia U19

1.14

Netherlands U19

0.60

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Slovenia U19+0.00on par

Netherlands U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Slovenia U19 ↓

Netherlands U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–113%

0–213%

0–39%

0–44%

1

1–05%

1–19%

1–210%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–02%

2–13%

2–23%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–00%

3–11%

3–21%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Slovenia U19 or draw

33%

Slovenia U19 or Netherlands U19

80%

Draw or Netherlands U19

87%

Winning margin

Slovenia U19 wins by 2+

3%

Netherlands U19 wins by 2+

42%

Team goals

Slovenia U19 1+ goals

52%

Slovenia U19 2+ goals

17%

Slovenia U19 3+ goals

4%

Netherlands U19 1+ goals

87%

Netherlands U19 2+ goals

60%

Netherlands U19 3+ goals

33%

Draw no bet

Slovenia U19 (draw refunded)

16%

Netherlands U19 (draw refunded)

84%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Slovenia U19 at home — creates 0.86, concedes 1.14 · 14 matches

Netherlands U19 away — creates 2.90, concedes 0.60 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Slovenia U19 attack 0.86 + Netherlands U19 defence 0.60 → ÷2 → 0.73

Netherlands U19 attack 2.90 + Slovenia U19 defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 2.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 67%?"

Slovenia U19 scores more

13%

level

20%

Netherlands U19 scores more

67%

Netherlands U19 at 67% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 67% does not mean "Netherlands U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

26'

W. Kuhn

38'

R. Obric

59'

N. Koren← L. Mlakar

61'

D. Konadu← J. Bergraaf

61'

J. Oerip← W. Kuhn

67'

R. Hrvatin

68'

L. TopalovićOwn goal

69'

N. Grlić← L. Dovžan Karahodžić

72'

Z. Redmond← A. Sliti

73'

T. Land

82'

Z. Redmond

85'

G. Kranjčič← D. Pejičić

85'

J. Jelen← L. Topalović

85'

K. Bendra← R. Hrvatin

90+1'

T. Braem← T. Land

Slovenia

Netherlands

1

2

5

4

8

▼

Kuhn

3

Ugwu

10

Smit

6

▼

Land

11

▼

Sliti

7

Oufkir

9

▼

1

6

14

5

3

4

10

🥅

▼

Topalović

23

▼

Hrvatin

8

▼

Pejičić

9

▼

Mlakar

17

▼

Karahodži

Manager: M. Brečko

59'▲N. Koren←▼L. Mlakar

69'▲N. Grlić←▼L. Dovžan Karahodžić

85'▲G. Kranjčič←▼D. Pejičić

85'▲J. Jelen←▼L. Topalović

85'▲K. Bendra←▼R. Hrvatin

Slovenia U19 substitutes

21Koren11Grlić20Kranjčič19Jelen7Bendra12Blažič18Zabukovnik15Bilać2Tomšič

Manager: P. van der Veen

61'▲D. Konadu←▼J. Bergraaf

61'▲J. Oerip←▼W. Kuhn

72'▲Z. Redmond←▼A. Sliti

90+1'▲T. Braem←▼T. Land

Netherlands U19 substitutes

15Konadu20Oerip17Redmond18Braem16Ka12Rots19Raterink21Bouland14Ban