Slovenia U19 2–0 Kosovo U19: Result & Stats

Slovenia U19

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Kosovo U19

F. Jevšenak 87'

J. Čuber Potočnik 40'

3/26/2024

UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification · Elite Round - 4Športni park Lendava

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Slovenia U1945%

×Draw26%

Kosovo U1929%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Slovenia U19Expected goals in this matchKosovo U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.47

1.11

Slovenia U19

1.47

Kosovo U19

1.11

Slovenia U19 creates 32% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 13 away

0.86

creates per match

1.08

1.14

allows per match

2.08

creates per match

Slovenia U19

0.86

Kosovo U19

1.08

allows per match

Slovenia U19

1.14

Kosovo U19

2.08

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Slovenia U19+0.00on par

Kosovo U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Slovenia U19 ↓

Kosovo U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Slovenia U19 or draw

71%

Slovenia U19 or Kosovo U19

74%

Draw or Kosovo U19

55%

Winning margin

Slovenia U19 wins by 2+

22%

Kosovo U19 wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Slovenia U19 1+ goals

77%

Slovenia U19 2+ goals

43%

Slovenia U19 3+ goals

18%

Kosovo U19 1+ goals

67%

Kosovo U19 2+ goals

30%

Kosovo U19 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Slovenia U19 (draw refunded)

61%

Kosovo U19 (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Slovenia U19 at home — creates 0.86, concedes 1.14 · 14 matches

Kosovo U19 away — creates 1.08, concedes 2.08 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Slovenia U19 attack 0.86 + Kosovo U19 defence 2.08 → ÷2 → 1.47

Kosovo U19 attack 1.08 + Slovenia U19 defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Slovenia U19 scores more

45%

level

26%

Kosovo U19 scores more

29%

Slovenia U19 at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Slovenia U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

26'

K. Bendra

35'

M. Trdan

36'

R. Obric

40'

J. Čuber Potočnik

46'

A. Fazlija← L. Zeqiraj

46'

46'

56'

61'

61'

L. Mlakar← A. Jakupović

67'

R. Silajdžić← D. Kojić

73'

77'

82'

87'

Slovenia

Kosovo

1

Avdija

22

▼

Dobruna

5

▼

Zeqiraj

4

Sylaj

15

▼

14

20

23

10

▼

21

7

1

4

5

14

▼

Obrić

16

▼

Bendra

6

Trdan

20

Lorbek

8

⚽

Jevšenak

9

⚽

Potočnik

19

▼

Jakupović

15

▼

Kojić

Manager: M. Brečko

61'▲L. Hribar←▼K. Bendra

61'▲L. Mlakar←▼A. Jakupović

67'▲R. Silajdžić←▼D. Kojić

82'▲L. Poredoš←▼R. Obrić

Slovenia U19 substitutes

23Hribar18Mlakar7Silajdžić3Poredoš17Benkič21Mačak12Tomažič11Topalović10Kasalo

Manager: A. Maliqi

46'▲A. Fazlija←▼L. Zeqiraj

46'▲A. Milaj←▼L. Lleshi

46'▲E. Rama←▼I. Jashari

77'▲R. Gashi←▼D. Dobruna

Kosovo U19 substitutes

17Fazlija6Milaj19Rama2Gashi11Hasani8Lokaj13Ibrahimi12Qela