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Slovenia U19 vs Hungary U19 — UEFA U19 Championship 2019

Slovenia U19
Slovenia U19
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 0
Hungary U19
Hungary U19
A. Matko 14'
S. Schön 66'
D. Szoboszlai 60'
10/10/2018UEFA U19 ChampionshipUEFA U19 Championship · Qualifying Round - 2Hidegkuti Nándor Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Slovenia U1939%
×Draw24%
Hungary U1937%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Slovenia U19
1.60
Hungary U19
1.56

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 3 home / 5 away

creates per match

Slovenia U19
2.00
Hungary U19
1.80

allows per match

Slovenia U19
1.33
Hungary U19
1.20

finishing

Slovenia U19+0.00on par
Hungary U19+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Slovenia U19 ↓

Hungary U19 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Slovenia U19 or draw
63%
Slovenia U19 or Hungary U19
76%
Draw or Hungary U19
61%

Winning margin

Slovenia U19 wins by 2+
19%
Hungary U19 wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Slovenia U19 1+ goals
80%
Slovenia U19 2+ goals
47%
Slovenia U19 3+ goals
22%
Hungary U19 1+ goals
79%
Hungary U19 2+ goals
46%
Hungary U19 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

Slovenia U19 (draw refunded)
51%
Hungary U19 (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Slovenia U19 at home — creates 2.00, concedes 1.33 · 3 matches

Hungary U19 away — creates 1.80, concedes 1.20 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Slovenia U19 attack 2.00 + Hungary U19 defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.60

Hungary U19 attack 1.80 + Slovenia U19 defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.56

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Slovenia U19 scores more
39%
level
24%
Hungary U19 scores more
37%

Slovenia U19 at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Slovenia U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

14'
A. Matko
60'
D. Szoboszlai
66'
S. Schön

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Slovenia U19 1 – 2 Hungary U19

Hungary U19 beat Slovenia U19 2-1 in UEFA U19 Championship on October 10, 2018.

Goals: A. Matko (14'), D. Szoboszlai (60'), S. Schön (66').

The match was played at Hidegkuti Nándor Stadion in Budapest.