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Slovenia U17 vs Kosovo U17 — UEFA U17 Championship - Qualification 2022

Slovenia U17
Slovenia U17
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Kosovo U17
Kosovo U17
10/9/2021UEFA U17 Championship - QualificationUEFA U17 Championship - Qualification · Qualifying Round - 2Sportschule Lindabrunn

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Slovenia U1758%
×Draw21%
Kosovo U1721%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Slovenia U17
2.12
Kosovo U17
1.20

Slovenia U17 creates 77% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 14 away

creates per match

Slovenia U17
1.81
Kosovo U17
1.21

allows per match

Slovenia U17
1.19
Kosovo U17
2.43

finishing

Slovenia U17+0.00on par
Kosovo U17+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Slovenia U17 ↓

Kosovo U17 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–14%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–19%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–24%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
42%58%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Slovenia U17 or draw
79%
Slovenia U17 or Kosovo U17
79%
Draw or Kosovo U17
42%

Winning margin

Slovenia U17 wins by 2+
36%
Kosovo U17 wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Slovenia U17 1+ goals
88%
Slovenia U17 2+ goals
62%
Slovenia U17 3+ goals
35%
Kosovo U17 1+ goals
70%
Kosovo U17 2+ goals
34%
Kosovo U17 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Slovenia U17 (draw refunded)
73%
Kosovo U17 (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Slovenia U17 at home — creates 1.81, concedes 1.19 · 16 matches

Kosovo U17 away — creates 1.21, concedes 2.43 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Slovenia U17 attack 1.81 + Kosovo U17 defence 2.43 → ÷2 → 2.12

Kosovo U17 attack 1.21 + Slovenia U17 defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Slovenia U17 scores more
58%
level
21%
Kosovo U17 scores more
21%

Slovenia U17 at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Slovenia U17 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

UEFA U17 Championship - Qualification: Slovenia U17 1–0 Kosovo U17

Slovenia U17 beat Kosovo U17 1-0 in UEFA U17 Championship - Qualification on October 9, 2021.

The match was played at Sportschule Lindabrunn in Enzesfeld-Lindabrunn.