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Sloven Ruma vs Tisa Adorjan — Srpska Liga - Vojvodina 2019

Sloven Ruma
Sloven Ruma
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Tisa Adorjan
Tisa Adorjan
10/14/2023Srpska Liga - VojvodinaSrpska Liga - Vojvodina · Vojvodina - 10Stadion Sloven

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Sloven Ruma51%
×Draw23%
Tisa Adorjan26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sloven Ruma
1.80
Tisa Adorjan
1.21

Sloven Ruma creates 49% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 64 away

creates per match

Sloven Ruma
1.97
Tisa Adorjan
1.58

allows per match

Sloven Ruma
0.83
Tisa Adorjan
1.64

finishing

Sloven Ruma+0.00on par
Tisa Adorjan+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sloven Ruma ↓

Tisa Adorjan →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Sloven Ruma or draw
74%
Sloven Ruma or Tisa Adorjan
77%
Draw or Tisa Adorjan
49%

Winning margin

Sloven Ruma wins by 2+
28%
Tisa Adorjan wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Sloven Ruma 1+ goals
83%
Sloven Ruma 2+ goals
54%
Sloven Ruma 3+ goals
27%
Tisa Adorjan 1+ goals
70%
Tisa Adorjan 2+ goals
34%
Tisa Adorjan 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Sloven Ruma (draw refunded)
67%
Tisa Adorjan (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sloven Ruma at home — creates 1.97, concedes 0.83 · 30 matches

Tisa Adorjan away — creates 1.58, concedes 1.64 · 64 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sloven Ruma attack 1.97 + Tisa Adorjan defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 1.80

Tisa Adorjan attack 1.58 + Sloven Ruma defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Sloven Ruma scores more
51%
level
23%
Tisa Adorjan scores more
26%

Sloven Ruma at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Sloven Ruma will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Sloven Ruma vs Tisa Adorjan

Sloven Ruma beat Tisa Adorjan 1-0 in Srpska Liga - Vojvodina on October 14, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion Sloven in Ruma.