Sloven Ruma 3–3 Podunavac: Result & Stats

Sloven Ruma

FT

3 – 3

Podunavac

4/10/2024

Srpska Liga - Vojvodina · Vojvodina - 22Stadion Sloven

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Sloven Ruma52%

×Draw25%

Podunavac24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Sloven RumaExpected goals in this matchPodunavac

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.65

1.03

Sloven Ruma

1.65

Podunavac

1.03

Sloven Ruma creates 60% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 44 away

1.97

creates per match

1.23

0.83

allows per match

1.32

creates per match

Sloven Ruma

1.97

Podunavac

1.23

allows per match

Sloven Ruma

0.83

Podunavac

1.32

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sloven Ruma+0.00on par

Podunavac+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sloven Ruma ↓

Podunavac →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–17%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Sloven Ruma or draw

76%

Sloven Ruma or Podunavac

75%

Draw or Podunavac

48%

Winning margin

Sloven Ruma wins by 2+

28%

Podunavac wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Sloven Ruma 1+ goals

81%

Sloven Ruma 2+ goals

49%

Sloven Ruma 3+ goals

23%

Podunavac 1+ goals

64%

Podunavac 2+ goals

28%

Podunavac 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Sloven Ruma (draw refunded)

69%

Podunavac (draw refunded)

31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sloven Ruma at home — creates 1.97, concedes 0.83 · 30 matches

Podunavac away — creates 1.23, concedes 1.32 · 44 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sloven Ruma attack 1.97 + Podunavac defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.65

Podunavac attack 1.23 + Sloven Ruma defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 1.03

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Sloven Ruma scores more

52%

level

25%

Podunavac scores more

24%

Sloven Ruma at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Sloven Ruma will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff