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Sloven Ruma vs Borac Šajkaš — Srpska Liga - Vojvodina 2019

Sloven Ruma
Sloven Ruma
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Borac Šajkaš
Borac Šajkaš
9/9/2023Srpska Liga - VojvodinaSrpska Liga - Vojvodina · Vojvodina - 5Stadion Sloven

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Sloven Ruma58%
×Draw23%
Borac Šajkaš18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sloven Ruma
1.77
Borac Šajkaš
0.88

Sloven Ruma creates 101% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 60 away

creates per match

Sloven Ruma
1.97
Borac Šajkaš
0.93

allows per match

Sloven Ruma
0.83
Borac Šajkaš
1.57

finishing

Sloven Ruma+0.00on par
Borac Šajkaš+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sloven Ruma ↓

Borac Šajkaš →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–111%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Sloven Ruma or draw
82%
Sloven Ruma or Borac Šajkaš
77%
Draw or Borac Šajkaš
42%

Winning margin

Sloven Ruma wins by 2+
33%
Borac Šajkaš wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Sloven Ruma 1+ goals
83%
Sloven Ruma 2+ goals
53%
Sloven Ruma 3+ goals
26%
Borac Šajkaš 1+ goals
59%
Borac Šajkaš 2+ goals
22%
Borac Šajkaš 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Sloven Ruma (draw refunded)
76%
Borac Šajkaš (draw refunded)
24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sloven Ruma at home — creates 1.97, concedes 0.83 · 30 matches

Borac Šajkaš away — creates 0.93, concedes 1.57 · 60 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sloven Ruma attack 1.97 + Borac Šajkaš defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.77

Borac Šajkaš attack 0.93 + Sloven Ruma defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 0.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Sloven Ruma scores more
58%
level
23%
Borac Šajkaš scores more
18%

Sloven Ruma at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Sloven Ruma will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Srpska Liga - Vojvodina: Sloven Ruma 0–2 Borac Šajkaš

Borac Šajkaš beat Sloven Ruma 2-0 in Srpska Liga - Vojvodina on September 9, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion Sloven in Ruma.