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Sloven Ruma vs Backa — Srpska Liga - Vojvodina 2019

Sloven Ruma
Sloven Ruma
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Backa
Backa
10/25/2025Srpska Liga - VojvodinaSrpska Liga - Vojvodina · Round 11Stadion Sloven

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Sloven Ruma62%
×Draw22%
Backa16%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sloven Ruma
1.83
Backa
0.80

Sloven Ruma creates 129% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 37 away

creates per match

Sloven Ruma
1.97
Backa
0.78

allows per match

Sloven Ruma
0.83
Backa
1.70

finishing

Sloven Ruma+0.00on par
Backa+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sloven Ruma ↓

Backa →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–16%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–111%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–16%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Sloven Ruma or draw
84%
Sloven Ruma or Backa
78%
Draw or Backa
38%

Winning margin

Sloven Ruma wins by 2+
36%
Backa wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Sloven Ruma 1+ goals
84%
Sloven Ruma 2+ goals
54%
Sloven Ruma 3+ goals
28%
Backa 1+ goals
55%
Backa 2+ goals
19%
Backa 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Sloven Ruma (draw refunded)
79%
Backa (draw refunded)
21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sloven Ruma at home — creates 1.97, concedes 0.83 · 30 matches

Backa away — creates 0.78, concedes 1.70 · 37 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sloven Ruma attack 1.97 + Backa defence 1.70 → ÷2 → 1.83

Backa attack 0.78 + Sloven Ruma defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 0.80

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Sloven Ruma scores more
62%
level
22%
Backa scores more
16%

Sloven Ruma at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Sloven Ruma will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Sloven Ruma vs Backa

Sloven Ruma beat Backa 1-0 in Srpska Liga - Vojvodina on October 25, 2025.

The match was played at Stadion Sloven in Ruma.