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Slovan Velvary vs Sokol Živanice — 3. liga - CFL B 2020

Slovan Velvary
Slovan Velvary
FT
2 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Sokol Živanice
Sokol Živanice
10/14/20233. liga - CFL B3. liga - CFL B · ČFL B - 11Stadion TJ Slovan Velvary

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 64+ matches

Slovan Velvary52%
×Draw23%
Sokol Živanice25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Slovan Velvary
1.85
Sokol Živanice
1.21

Slovan Velvary creates 53% more chances

Season form · 64 home / 64 away

creates per match

Slovan Velvary
1.83
Sokol Živanice
1.14

allows per match

Slovan Velvary
1.27
Sokol Živanice
1.88

finishing

Slovan Velvary+0.00on par
Sokol Živanice+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Slovan Velvary ↓

Sokol Živanice →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Slovan Velvary or draw
75%
Slovan Velvary or Sokol Živanice
77%
Draw or Sokol Živanice
48%

Winning margin

Slovan Velvary wins by 2+
29%
Sokol Živanice wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Slovan Velvary 1+ goals
84%
Slovan Velvary 2+ goals
55%
Slovan Velvary 3+ goals
28%
Sokol Živanice 1+ goals
70%
Sokol Živanice 2+ goals
34%
Sokol Živanice 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Slovan Velvary (draw refunded)
68%
Sokol Živanice (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Slovan Velvary at home — creates 1.83, concedes 1.27 · 64 matches

Sokol Živanice away — creates 1.14, concedes 1.88 · 64 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Slovan Velvary attack 1.83 + Sokol Živanice defence 1.88 → ÷2 → 1.85

Sokol Živanice attack 1.14 + Slovan Velvary defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Slovan Velvary scores more
52%
level
23%
Sokol Živanice scores more
25%

Slovan Velvary at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Slovan Velvary will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

3. liga - CFL B: Slovan Velvary 2–0 Sokol Živanice

Slovan Velvary beat Sokol Živanice 2-0 in 3. liga - CFL B on October 14, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion TJ Slovan Velvary in Velvary.