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Slovan Velvary vs Přeštice — 3. liga - CFL A 2019

Slovan Velvary
Slovan Velvary
CANC
14:00
Přeštice
Přeštice
10/5/20243. liga - CFL A3. liga - CFL A · ČFL A - 9Stadion TJ Slovan Velvary

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Slovan Velvary44%
×Draw23%
Přeštice33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Slovan Velvary
1.80
Přeštice
1.52

Slovan Velvary creates 18% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 30 away

creates per match

Slovan Velvary
1.67
Přeštice
1.17

allows per match

Slovan Velvary
1.87
Přeštice
1.93

finishing

Slovan Velvary+0.00on par
Přeštice+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Slovan Velvary ↓

Přeštice →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
42%58%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Slovan Velvary or draw
67%
Slovan Velvary or Přeštice
77%
Draw or Přeštice
56%

Winning margin

Slovan Velvary wins by 2+
24%
Přeštice wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Slovan Velvary 1+ goals
83%
Slovan Velvary 2+ goals
54%
Slovan Velvary 3+ goals
27%
Přeštice 1+ goals
78%
Přeštice 2+ goals
45%
Přeštice 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Slovan Velvary (draw refunded)
58%
Přeštice (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
55%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Slovan Velvary at home — creates 1.67, concedes 1.87 · 15 matches

Přeštice away — creates 1.17, concedes 1.93 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Slovan Velvary attack 1.67 + Přeštice defence 1.93 → ÷2 → 1.80

Přeštice attack 1.17 + Slovan Velvary defence 1.87 → ÷2 → 1.52

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Slovan Velvary scores more
44%
level
23%
Přeštice scores more
33%

Slovan Velvary at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Slovan Velvary will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Slovan Velvary host Přeštice

October 5, 2024: Slovan Velvary take on Přeštice in 3. liga - CFL A. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Slovan Velvary host Přeštice at Stadion TJ Slovan Velvary.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.