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Slovan Rosice vs Zlín II — 3. liga - MSFL 2019

Slovan Rosice
Slovan Rosice
CANC
15:00
Zlín II
Zlín II
5/24/20203. liga - MSFL3. liga - MSFL · MSFL - 28Hřiště FC Slovan

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 68+ matches

Slovan Rosice56%
×Draw24%
Zlín II20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Slovan Rosice
1.73
Zlín II
0.93

Slovan Rosice creates 86% more chances

Season form · 68 home / 83 away

creates per match

Slovan Rosice
1.60
Zlín II
1.01

allows per match

Slovan Rosice
0.85
Zlín II
1.86

finishing

Slovan Rosice+0.00on par
Zlín II+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Slovan Rosice ↓

Zlín II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–111%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Slovan Rosice or draw
80%
Slovan Rosice or Zlín II
76%
Draw or Zlín II
44%

Winning margin

Slovan Rosice wins by 2+
31%
Zlín II wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Slovan Rosice 1+ goals
82%
Slovan Rosice 2+ goals
52%
Slovan Rosice 3+ goals
25%
Zlín II 1+ goals
61%
Zlín II 2+ goals
24%
Zlín II 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Slovan Rosice (draw refunded)
74%
Zlín II (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Slovan Rosice at home — creates 1.60, concedes 0.85 · 68 matches

Zlín II away — creates 1.01, concedes 1.86 · 83 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Slovan Rosice attack 1.60 + Zlín II defence 1.86 → ÷2 → 1.73

Zlín II attack 1.01 + Slovan Rosice defence 0.85 → ÷2 → 0.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Slovan Rosice scores more
56%
level
24%
Zlín II scores more
20%

Slovan Rosice at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Slovan Rosice will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Slovan Rosice face Zlín II (3. liga - MSFL)

3. liga - MSFL returns with Slovan Rosice hosting Zlín II. Match starts May 24, 2020. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Slovan Rosice host Zlín II at Hřiště FC Slovan.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.