Slovan Rosice 3–1 Velké Meziříčí: Result & Stats

Slovan Rosice

FT

3 – 1

Velké Meziříčí

6/5/2021

Friendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 4

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Slovan Rosice41%

×Draw22%

Velké Meziříčí37%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Slovan RosiceExpected goals in this matchVelké Meziříčí

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.88

1.79

Slovan Rosice

1.88

Velké Meziříčí

1.79

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 8 home / 3 away

2.75

creates per match

2.33

1.25

allows per match

1.00

creates per match

Slovan Rosice

2.75

Velké Meziříčí

2.33

allows per match

Slovan Rosice

1.25

Velké Meziříčí

1.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Slovan Rosice+0.00on par

Velké Meziříčí+0.00on par

Total goals

Over71
Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes71
No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Slovan Rosice ↓

Velké Meziříčí →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–15%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–05%

1–19%

1–28%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–25%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

88%12%2.5

71%29%3.5

50%50%4.5

30%70%

Double chance

Slovan Rosice or draw

63%

Slovan Rosice or Velké Meziříčí

78%

Draw or Velké Meziříčí

59%

Winning margin

Slovan Rosice wins by 2+

22%

Velké Meziříčí wins by 2+

19%

Team goals

Slovan Rosice 1+ goals

85%

Slovan Rosice 2+ goals

56%

Slovan Rosice 3+ goals

29%

Velké Meziříčí 1+ goals

83%

Velké Meziříčí 2+ goals

53%

Velké Meziříčí 3+ goals

26%

Draw no bet

Slovan Rosice (draw refunded)

52%

Velké Meziříčí (draw refunded)

48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

62%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Slovan Rosice at home — creates 2.75, concedes 1.25 · 8 matches

Velké Meziříčí away — creates 2.33, concedes 1.00 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Slovan Rosice attack 2.75 + Velké Meziříčí defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.88

Velké Meziříčí attack 2.33 + Slovan Rosice defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.79

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Slovan Rosice scores more

41%

level

22%

Velké Meziříčí scores more

37%

Slovan Rosice at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Slovan Rosice will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff