Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Slovan Rosice vs Velké Meziříčí — 3. liga - MSFL 2019

Slovan Rosice
Slovan Rosice
CANC
15:00
Velké Meziříčí
Velké Meziříčí
6/7/20203. liga - MSFL3. liga - MSFL · MSFL - 30Hřiště FC Slovan

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 49+ matches

Slovan Rosice61%
×Draw21%
Velké Meziříčí18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Slovan Rosice
2.06
Velké Meziříčí
1.01

Slovan Rosice creates 104% more chances

Season form · 68 home / 49 away

creates per match

Slovan Rosice
1.60
Velké Meziříčí
1.18

allows per match

Slovan Rosice
0.85
Velké Meziříčí
2.53

finishing

Slovan Rosice+0.00on par
Velké Meziříčí+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Slovan Rosice ↓

Velké Meziříčí →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–15%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–110%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
37%63%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Slovan Rosice or draw
82%
Slovan Rosice or Velké Meziříčí
79%
Draw or Velké Meziříčí
39%

Winning margin

Slovan Rosice wins by 2+
38%
Velké Meziříčí wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Slovan Rosice 1+ goals
87%
Slovan Rosice 2+ goals
61%
Slovan Rosice 3+ goals
34%
Velké Meziříčí 1+ goals
64%
Velké Meziříčí 2+ goals
27%
Velké Meziříčí 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Slovan Rosice (draw refunded)
77%
Velké Meziříčí (draw refunded)
23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Slovan Rosice at home — creates 1.60, concedes 0.85 · 68 matches

Velké Meziříčí away — creates 1.18, concedes 2.53 · 49 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Slovan Rosice attack 1.60 + Velké Meziříčí defence 2.53 → ÷2 → 2.06

Velké Meziříčí attack 1.18 + Slovan Rosice defence 0.85 → ÷2 → 1.01

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Slovan Rosice scores more
61%
level
21%
Velké Meziříčí scores more
18%

Slovan Rosice at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Slovan Rosice will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Slovan Rosice face Velké Meziříčí (3. liga - MSFL)

3. liga - MSFL returns with Slovan Rosice hosting Velké Meziříčí. Match starts June 7, 2020. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Slovan Rosice host Velké Meziříčí at Hřiště FC Slovan.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.