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Slovan Rosice vs Sigma Olomouc II — 3. liga - MSFL 2019

Slovan Rosice
Slovan Rosice
FT
1 – 0
Sigma Olomouc II
Sigma Olomouc II
J. Kolacny 41'
9/8/20213. liga - MSFL3. liga - MSFL · MSFL - 17Hřiště FC Slovan

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 49+ matches

Slovan Rosice33%
×Draw25%
Sigma Olomouc II42%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Slovan Rosice
1.33
Sigma Olomouc II
1.54

Sigma Olomouc II creates 16% more chances

Season form · 68 home / 49 away

creates per match

Slovan Rosice
1.60
Sigma Olomouc II
2.22

allows per match

Slovan Rosice
0.85
Sigma Olomouc II
1.06

finishing

Slovan Rosice+0.00on par
Sigma Olomouc II+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Slovan Rosice ↓

Sigma Olomouc II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–19%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Slovan Rosice or draw
58%
Slovan Rosice or Sigma Olomouc II
75%
Draw or Sigma Olomouc II
67%

Winning margin

Slovan Rosice wins by 2+
14%
Sigma Olomouc II wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

Slovan Rosice 1+ goals
74%
Slovan Rosice 2+ goals
38%
Slovan Rosice 3+ goals
15%
Sigma Olomouc II 1+ goals
79%
Sigma Olomouc II 2+ goals
45%
Sigma Olomouc II 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Slovan Rosice (draw refunded)
44%
Sigma Olomouc II (draw refunded)
56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Slovan Rosice at home — creates 1.60, concedes 0.85 · 68 matches

Sigma Olomouc II away — creates 2.22, concedes 1.06 · 49 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Slovan Rosice attack 1.60 + Sigma Olomouc II defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.33

Sigma Olomouc II attack 2.22 + Slovan Rosice defence 0.85 → ÷2 → 1.54

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Slovan Rosice scores more
33%
level
25%
Sigma Olomouc II scores more
42%

Sigma Olomouc II at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Sigma Olomouc II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

41'
J. Kolacny
46'
J. Pina← J. Pina
49'
D. Grygar
54'
J. David
60'
J. Vitamvas← P. Senk
72'
J. Kotouc← J. Kotouc
72'
F. Slavicek← F. Slavicek
78'
P. Sip← P. Sip
83'
D. Grygar← M. Mikulenka
86'
M. Krsak← M. Krsak
86'
T. Selinger← A. Fila
86'
D. Prerovsky← P. Drbal
90+1'
D. Vanecek
90+1'
T. Zezula
90+1'
J. Pina

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

3. liga - MSFL: Slovan Rosice 1–0 Sigma Olomouc II

Slovan Rosice beat Sigma Olomouc II 1-0 in 3. liga - MSFL on September 8, 2021.

Goals: J. Kolacny (41').

The match was played at Hřiště FC Slovan in Rosice.