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Slovan Rosice vs Hlučín — 3. liga - MSFL 2019

Slovan Rosice
Slovan Rosice
FT
0 – 0
Hlučín
Hlučín
9/4/20193. liga - MSFL3. liga - MSFL · MSFL - 17Hřiště FC Slovan

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 68+ matches

Slovan Rosice42%
×Draw25%
Hlučín32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Slovan Rosice
1.48
Hlučín
1.26

Slovan Rosice creates 17% more chances

Season form · 68 home / 81 away

creates per match

Slovan Rosice
1.60
Hlučín
1.67

allows per match

Slovan Rosice
0.85
Hlučín
1.36

finishing

Slovan Rosice+0.00on par
Hlučín+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Slovan Rosice ↓

Hlučín →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Slovan Rosice or draw
68%
Slovan Rosice or Hlučín
75%
Draw or Hlučín
58%

Winning margin

Slovan Rosice wins by 2+
21%
Hlučín wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Slovan Rosice 1+ goals
77%
Slovan Rosice 2+ goals
43%
Slovan Rosice 3+ goals
19%
Hlučín 1+ goals
72%
Hlučín 2+ goals
36%
Hlučín 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Slovan Rosice (draw refunded)
57%
Hlučín (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Slovan Rosice at home — creates 1.60, concedes 0.85 · 68 matches

Hlučín away — creates 1.67, concedes 1.36 · 81 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Slovan Rosice attack 1.60 + Hlučín defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.48

Hlučín attack 1.67 + Slovan Rosice defence 0.85 → ÷2 → 1.26

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Slovan Rosice scores more
42%
level
25%
Hlučín scores more
32%

Slovan Rosice at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Slovan Rosice will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

3. liga - MSFL: Slovan Rosice 0–0 Hlučín

Slovan Rosice and Hlučín drew 0-0 in 3. liga - MSFL on September 4, 2019.

The match was played at Hřiště FC Slovan in Rosice.