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Hlučín vs Slovan Rosice — 3. liga - MSFL 2019

Hlučín
Hlučín
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Slovan Rosice
Slovan Rosice
A. Zajicek 87'
D. Mladek 10'
F. Matula 21'
11/3/20233. liga - MSFL3. liga - MSFL · MSFL - 14Městský fotbalový stadion Hlučín

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 64+ matches

Hlučín40%
×Draw25%
Slovan Rosice34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hlučín
1.46
Slovan Rosice
1.33

Hlučín creates 10% more chances

Season form · 85 home / 64 away

creates per match

Hlučín
1.69
Slovan Rosice
1.31

allows per match

Hlučín
1.34
Slovan Rosice
1.22

finishing

Hlučín+0.00on par
Slovan Rosice+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hlučín ↓

Slovan Rosice →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Hlučín or draw
66%
Hlučín or Slovan Rosice
75%
Draw or Slovan Rosice
60%

Winning margin

Hlučín wins by 2+
19%
Slovan Rosice wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Hlučín 1+ goals
77%
Hlučín 2+ goals
43%
Hlučín 3+ goals
18%
Slovan Rosice 1+ goals
74%
Slovan Rosice 2+ goals
38%
Slovan Rosice 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Hlučín (draw refunded)
54%
Slovan Rosice (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hlučín at home — creates 1.69, concedes 1.34 · 85 matches

Slovan Rosice away — creates 1.31, concedes 1.22 · 64 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hlučín attack 1.69 + Slovan Rosice defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.46

Slovan Rosice attack 1.31 + Hlučín defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Hlučín scores more
40%
level
25%
Slovan Rosice scores more
34%

Hlučín at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Hlučín will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

10'
D. Mladek
21'
F. Matula
29'
J. Kolacny
40'
J. Kolacny
40'
J. Kolacny
55'
M. Novotny
56'
E. Aririerisim
58'
F. Nemecek← F. Nemecek
61'
L. Kania← L. Kania
61'
M. Praus← D. Smekal
70'
V. Wala← V. Wala
70'
A. Zajicek← A. Zajicek
70'
D. Prerovsky← D. Prerovsky
70'
E. Sedlacek← E. Sedlacek
85'
J. Oborny← J. Oborny
87'
A. Zajicek
90'
T. Kovala← T. Kovala

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

3. liga - MSFL: Hlučín 2–1 Slovan Rosice

Hlučín beat Slovan Rosice 2-1 in 3. liga - MSFL on November 3, 2023.

Goals: D. Mladek (10'), F. Matula (21'), A. Zajicek (87').

The match was played at Městský fotbalový stadion Hlučín in Hlučín.